Origin I Preview

Hello everyone and welcome to the best time of the rugby league year…State of Origin time!! Walking around Brisbane-town this week already you can smell it in the air. The shops are decked out in maroon, we’ve got people donning the jerseys and everyone who cares is chatting away about it. Queensland of course are shooting for a record fourth straight series win while the Blues have had one of the biggest clean outs in their history. So who is going to win Game I and how are they going to do it…?

History
The big stat is Queensland looking to be the first side in the almost 30 year history of State of Origin to go four in a row. The Blues simply have to find a way to prevent that from happening. New South Wales had eight debutants, now seven with Glenn Stewart suspended last night, named for Game I. The last time they did that, 2002, the Blues came away with a comprehensive 32-4 win at home. However we are on neutral turf next week.

The Venue
Ethiad Stadium…formerly known as Telstra Dome which was formerly known as Colonial Stadium…it’s that ground with the roof in Melbourne, we all know the one? Anyway that’s the venue for the series opener, the first time Game I has occurred outside Sydney or Brisbane. It is a Queensland home game and I think they will have whatever home town advantage there is to be had. The Maroons have four current Storm players plus two guys that were part of the three-year Grand Final run.

I don’t think conditions will be a problem. I’m pretty sure the roof will be closed for this match but I can’t find any confirmation of that. Even if it’s open I don’t think conditions will be quite as dewy as Sydney but not as dry/humid as Brisbane…so neutral in other words! That should make for some good attacking football which probably favours Queensland, but not by much.

The Teams
Phil Gould said on Triple M Monday Night Footy this week that Queensland knew their side at Christmas time. That call was spot on, the only change to last year barring a dramatic form difference or injury was going to be Michael Crocker. But once his England deal fell through and he got through two games with Souths he was an automatic selection. There may be one or two positional changes, possibly Slater to the bench and Hunt to start at fullback, but those 17 guys were always safe bets and they’ve been doing the job for three years.

‘Gus’ Gould also went on to say that no one could argue anyone in the NSW team didn’t deserve to be there on form. Again, that’s a pretty accurate argument to make. They have gone for all out attack which is evidenced by the selection of Michael Jennings over Matt Cooper at centre. They’ve named a strong side, albeit a young one, but certainly a squad capable of winning Origin games.

The Key Men
Queensland are full of the usual suspects with Lockyer, Thurston, Smith plus Inglis, Folau and Slater. I think Johnathan Thurston is the main man and he’s back to his best form. The Test Match seemed to spark him into gear and he is playing great football again. To negate him the Blues need to beat Queensland in the forwards and work on shutting down Cameron Smith.

The Blues have a few key players and their fate will rest on the Gidley-Campese-Wallace-Farah combination. I don’t think there is going to be a dominant player in that quartet like a Thurston so the key is probably keeping a lid on Farah. I think though NSW can get some real impact and points from the two Panthers; Jennings and Luke Lewis. But that too will rely a bit on Farah at dummy half.

How Queensland Can Win
Roll forward and use Thurston and Lockyer to deliver to Folau, Inglis and co. That’s been the game plan for three years and I can’t see it changing now. The Maroons have a strong, mobile forward pack that will try and run over the top of the Blues. It sounds simple, but the old rugby league adage of forwards win matches and backs determine the margin has been no truer than for this Origin side. Three tries will probably be enough to win because Queensland looks the better defensive side.

How New South Wales Can Win
Firstly, they must match and preferably beat Queensland in the forwards. After that, they need Farah creating opportunities from dummy half and a very good kicking game from the halves. NSW have try scorers in the backline but they need to be seeing quality ball on a regular basis. Jennings screams ‘danger’ for any defender and will have chances with Hodges likely to rush up and try and play in his face. The Blues will probably need four tries to win and should aim for around 26 points.

Who Will Win
Having a young side means the Blues will compete and be up in the Queensland faces for at least 60 minutes. If they lead by 4-6 points in the last twenty minutes NSW are a real show. I just worry though whether their forwards can match it with QLD. They will certainly be in with a good shot but I have to stick with Queensland picking up the win. Part of its loyalty, and part bias, but you have to think Queensland have a team that knows how to win big games. This will certainly be a heck of a match and if the Maroons don’t turn up ready to play they will get run down by an exciting NSW side.

First Try
I really like Michael Jennings as an attacking weapon for this one. I also like Luke Lewis but he will be starting on the bench, still we may not have a try for the first 20 minutes or so. There’ll be value on a debutant too. For Queensland, take your pick at the back but Folau will be short odds. Also look for Darius Boyd out on the wing too and possibly Thurston.

Final Thoughts
I can’t wait for this one, you can smell it in the air and feel the vibe all the way from Melbourne!! I know we will see a competitive series and there is very little between the two sides. Can’t wait for it!

Teams:

QUEENSLAND
Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm), Darius Boyd (St George Illawarra), Greg Inglis (Melbourne Storm), Justin Hodges (Brisbane Broncos), Israel Folau (Brisbane Broncos); Darren Lockyer (captain, Brisbane Broncos), Johnathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys); Steve Price (Warriors), Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm), Petero Civoniceva (Penrith), Ashley Harrison (Gold Coast), Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos), Dallas Johnson (Melbourne Storm).
Interchange: Karmichael Hunt (Brisbane Broncos), Ben Hannant (Bulldogs), Nate Myles (Sydney Roosters), Michael Crocker (South Sydney)

NEW SOUTH WALES
Kurt Gidley (captain, Newcasle Knights), Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta Eels), Jamie Lyon (Manly Sea Eagles), Michael Jennings (Penrith Panthers), James McManus (Newcastle Knights), Terry Campese (Canberra Raiders), Peter Wallace (Brisbane Broncos), Brent Kite (Manly Sea Eagles), Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers), Luke Bailey (Gold Coast Titans), Ben Creagh (St George Illawarra), Luke O'Donnell (North Queensland Cowboys), Paul Gallen (Cronulla Sharks). Interchange: Craig Wing (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Justin Poore (St George Illawarra), Luke Lewis (Penrith Panthers), Michael Weyman (St George Illawarra)

Referees: Tony Archer and Shayne Hayne
Broadcast: Channel Nine 7:30pm (QLD, NSW), ABC Local Radio


Tips this week: Dragons, Sharks, Warriors, Bulldogs, Souths
Last week: 6/8 (Total: 47/84)
Winning percentage: 56%

Thanks for reading, any comments to andrew.keyte@gmail.com or just comment below. Enjoy the Origin!!

Cheers,
Keyto