Thursday, May 28, 2009

Origin I Preview

Hello everyone and welcome to the best time of the rugby league year…State of Origin time!! Walking around Brisbane-town this week already you can smell it in the air. The shops are decked out in maroon, we’ve got people donning the jerseys and everyone who cares is chatting away about it. Queensland of course are shooting for a record fourth straight series win while the Blues have had one of the biggest clean outs in their history. So who is going to win Game I and how are they going to do it…?

History
The big stat is Queensland looking to be the first side in the almost 30 year history of State of Origin to go four in a row. The Blues simply have to find a way to prevent that from happening. New South Wales had eight debutants, now seven with Glenn Stewart suspended last night, named for Game I. The last time they did that, 2002, the Blues came away with a comprehensive 32-4 win at home. However we are on neutral turf next week.

The Venue
Ethiad Stadium…formerly known as Telstra Dome which was formerly known as Colonial Stadium…it’s that ground with the roof in Melbourne, we all know the one? Anyway that’s the venue for the series opener, the first time Game I has occurred outside Sydney or Brisbane. It is a Queensland home game and I think they will have whatever home town advantage there is to be had. The Maroons have four current Storm players plus two guys that were part of the three-year Grand Final run.

I don’t think conditions will be a problem. I’m pretty sure the roof will be closed for this match but I can’t find any confirmation of that. Even if it’s open I don’t think conditions will be quite as dewy as Sydney but not as dry/humid as Brisbane…so neutral in other words! That should make for some good attacking football which probably favours Queensland, but not by much.

The Teams
Phil Gould said on Triple M Monday Night Footy this week that Queensland knew their side at Christmas time. That call was spot on, the only change to last year barring a dramatic form difference or injury was going to be Michael Crocker. But once his England deal fell through and he got through two games with Souths he was an automatic selection. There may be one or two positional changes, possibly Slater to the bench and Hunt to start at fullback, but those 17 guys were always safe bets and they’ve been doing the job for three years.

‘Gus’ Gould also went on to say that no one could argue anyone in the NSW team didn’t deserve to be there on form. Again, that’s a pretty accurate argument to make. They have gone for all out attack which is evidenced by the selection of Michael Jennings over Matt Cooper at centre. They’ve named a strong side, albeit a young one, but certainly a squad capable of winning Origin games.

The Key Men
Queensland are full of the usual suspects with Lockyer, Thurston, Smith plus Inglis, Folau and Slater. I think Johnathan Thurston is the main man and he’s back to his best form. The Test Match seemed to spark him into gear and he is playing great football again. To negate him the Blues need to beat Queensland in the forwards and work on shutting down Cameron Smith.

The Blues have a few key players and their fate will rest on the Gidley-Campese-Wallace-Farah combination. I don’t think there is going to be a dominant player in that quartet like a Thurston so the key is probably keeping a lid on Farah. I think though NSW can get some real impact and points from the two Panthers; Jennings and Luke Lewis. But that too will rely a bit on Farah at dummy half.

How Queensland Can Win
Roll forward and use Thurston and Lockyer to deliver to Folau, Inglis and co. That’s been the game plan for three years and I can’t see it changing now. The Maroons have a strong, mobile forward pack that will try and run over the top of the Blues. It sounds simple, but the old rugby league adage of forwards win matches and backs determine the margin has been no truer than for this Origin side. Three tries will probably be enough to win because Queensland looks the better defensive side.

How New South Wales Can Win
Firstly, they must match and preferably beat Queensland in the forwards. After that, they need Farah creating opportunities from dummy half and a very good kicking game from the halves. NSW have try scorers in the backline but they need to be seeing quality ball on a regular basis. Jennings screams ‘danger’ for any defender and will have chances with Hodges likely to rush up and try and play in his face. The Blues will probably need four tries to win and should aim for around 26 points.

Who Will Win
Having a young side means the Blues will compete and be up in the Queensland faces for at least 60 minutes. If they lead by 4-6 points in the last twenty minutes NSW are a real show. I just worry though whether their forwards can match it with QLD. They will certainly be in with a good shot but I have to stick with Queensland picking up the win. Part of its loyalty, and part bias, but you have to think Queensland have a team that knows how to win big games. This will certainly be a heck of a match and if the Maroons don’t turn up ready to play they will get run down by an exciting NSW side.

First Try
I really like Michael Jennings as an attacking weapon for this one. I also like Luke Lewis but he will be starting on the bench, still we may not have a try for the first 20 minutes or so. There’ll be value on a debutant too. For Queensland, take your pick at the back but Folau will be short odds. Also look for Darius Boyd out on the wing too and possibly Thurston.

Final Thoughts
I can’t wait for this one, you can smell it in the air and feel the vibe all the way from Melbourne!! I know we will see a competitive series and there is very little between the two sides. Can’t wait for it!

Teams:

QUEENSLAND
Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm), Darius Boyd (St George Illawarra), Greg Inglis (Melbourne Storm), Justin Hodges (Brisbane Broncos), Israel Folau (Brisbane Broncos); Darren Lockyer (captain, Brisbane Broncos), Johnathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys); Steve Price (Warriors), Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm), Petero Civoniceva (Penrith), Ashley Harrison (Gold Coast), Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos), Dallas Johnson (Melbourne Storm).
Interchange: Karmichael Hunt (Brisbane Broncos), Ben Hannant (Bulldogs), Nate Myles (Sydney Roosters), Michael Crocker (South Sydney)

NEW SOUTH WALES
Kurt Gidley (captain, Newcasle Knights), Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta Eels), Jamie Lyon (Manly Sea Eagles), Michael Jennings (Penrith Panthers), James McManus (Newcastle Knights), Terry Campese (Canberra Raiders), Peter Wallace (Brisbane Broncos), Brent Kite (Manly Sea Eagles), Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers), Luke Bailey (Gold Coast Titans), Ben Creagh (St George Illawarra), Luke O'Donnell (North Queensland Cowboys), Paul Gallen (Cronulla Sharks). Interchange: Craig Wing (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Justin Poore (St George Illawarra), Luke Lewis (Penrith Panthers), Michael Weyman (St George Illawarra)

Referees: Tony Archer and Shayne Hayne
Broadcast: Channel Nine 7:30pm (QLD, NSW), ABC Local Radio


Tips this week: Dragons, Sharks, Warriors, Bulldogs, Souths
Last week: 6/8 (Total: 47/84)
Winning percentage: 56%

Thanks for reading, any comments to andrew.keyte@gmail.com or just comment below. Enjoy the Origin!!

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Origin Bolters

Hello there and it’s that time of year where every league fan, in Queensland and New South Wales at least, are pumped up and ready to go for the Origin season. The Blues side for Origin I, on June 3 in Melbourne, will be announced during Monday Night Football this week with the Maroons named on Tuesday. There’s nothing better than an Origin Bolter, an unexpected name appearing on the team sheet, and I’m wondering if we will see any early next week.

Of more recent times Adam Mogg is probably the biggest bolter to be named. He had a couple of very good games on the wing for Queensland a few years ago despite being a relatively unknown, yet regular first grade player, at Canberra.

Today I will briefly have a look at a couple of potential bolters we could see named for Origin I.

Luke Lewis
His name should be there somewhere as he was 18th man for the Test Match but his NSW jersey number might be the shock. Personally I would have him on the bench but the mail today is that Lewis may be named five-eighth. I think that might be a good move for the Blues. With Kurt Gidley and Robbie Farah almost certainties now, plus whoever they name at halfback, Lewis can play a running and link man role. He won’t have to do any kicking or be particularly creative so I’m now tipping he may well be there. He’s not in that position in my team, but Lewis in 6 and Craig Wing on the bench is a real chance.

James McManus
I think the ‘flying Scotsman’ will be there on the NSW team sheet Monday night. He hasn’t missed a game for the Knights in a couple of years and he knows how to be a good winger. McManus is nothing flash but he knows how to defend and knows how to fine a try. He’s also strong in the air to combat Inglis and Folau. He had a solid showing in City/Country and his reliability I believe will see him sneak past Jarryd Hayne and the ‘Wolfman’ David Williams to partner Joel Monaghan on the flanks.

Justin Poore
Poore is another solid and reliable worker who won’t let anyone down. I think his no-nonsense, basic go-forward will get him a spot on the Blues bench. He doesn’t stand out like a Civoniceva or even a Mark O’Meley but I think the Blues will look for at least one rookie prop and Justin Poore is their man. Just a rock solid, hard-worker and I’m pretty sure we will see this Dragon in Origin this year.

Michael Ennis
I have a feeling, that I can’t justify in any way with any evidence whatsoever, that we may see one M.Ennis on a NSW bench. I don’t know why and it doesn’t really make sense, but we could see NSW go with the old Farah/Ennis one-two play. I don’t know why I think this, I can’t explain it, but I am saying I would not be surprised to see them both in the team.

Michael Crocker
A bit of an Origin veteran for the Maroons and his name would normally be a given...except this year he would have played just two games. Crocker was meant to be in England this year but visa issues quashed that. He finally signed with South Sydney two weeks ago, played about 70 minutes last week against the Tigers and will line up again this week. If Crocker is fully fit I would expect him to be named because, apparently, players love playing with him. He also brings a bit of raw aggression to a team and Queensland selectors would like that. I’m tipping M.Crocker will be named in the Queensland side next week.

Just quickly here are the squads I would pick and could be considered by both sets of selectors over the weekend:

QUEENSLAND (1-17)
Karmichael Hunt, Darius Boyd, Justin Hodges, Greg Inglis, Israel Folau, Darren Lockyer (c), Johnathan Thurston, Steve Price, Cameron Smith, Petero Civoniceva, Nate Myles, Ashley Harrison, Dallas Johnson. Bench: Billy Slater, Ben Hannant, Michael Crocker, Sam Thaiday

NEW SOUTH WALES (1-17)
Kurt Gidley (c), James McManus, Jamie Lyon, Matt Cooper, Joel Monaghan, Jarrod Mullen, Peter Wallace, Luke Bailey, Robbie Farah, Josh Perry, Anthony Laffranchi, Paul Gallen, Alan Tongue. Bench: Luke Lewis, Anthony Watmough, Brett White, Justin Poore


I think the Marrons squad picks itself with the likes of David Stagg just edged out by the loyalty factor with Harrison and Crocker. For New South Wales I have left out Michael’s’ Jennings and Ennis despite earlier this year saying the Blues ‘must have’ them. Things have changed a little bit now and while personally I would strongly consider them, it’s not going to happen yet I don’t think. I have also left out Brent Kite and Glenn Stewart even though they played the Test Match. I think there are better options for the Blues and they will make a hard decision there.

If you want to get your teams in before the announcement please drop me a line below or at andrew.keyte@gmail.com.

Tips this week: Broncos, Souths, Dragons, Bulldogs, Panthers, Warriors, Titans, Cowboys
Last week: 4/8 (Total: 41/76)
Winning percentage: 54%

For anyone in my tipping comp, I’m using double points this week. For anyone else that won’t mean much at all! That’s all from me this week, I will have an Origin I preview next week plus my Queensland Teams article will be about the Origin sides seeing as the three NRL teams all have the bye next week. If you liked this edition my name is Andrew Keyte and if you didn’t like it, my name is Mike Mizain.

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Refs, Reps and Sex

Well, what a difference a week makes in rugby league. And once again we’re talking about things other than football...As a 12 plus year rugby league fan I personally have had enough of this outside bullshit I really have. We’ve got a great product that’s getting destroyed by this off field stuff and there are always excuses and reasons floating around. It has to stop now before it completely ruins the game of rugby league.

I didn’t want to devote a whole column to Matthew Johns or sex assaults or player behaviour or whatever but I will be giving my opinion shortly. First of all I will touch on three things thankfully stemming from on field stuff.

Hazem El Masri

One of the best players in the game and from all reports one of the best men in the game Hazem El Masri celebrates his 300th match tomorrow night. He has been a terrific ambassador for the game and fully deserves this achievement.

The Referee’s

They copped a battering on Monday but, even as a Queenslander, I didn’t find much wrong with their performances in both the Titans and Broncos game last week. For mine the Scott Prince thing was gamesmanship on Princey’s part that went wrong. Prince was doing what most players do, being a nuisance close to the line, probably unaware his teammate saw an opening and dived over for the try. The thing with gamesmanship though is sometimes it will go against you as Prince found out last week. Was the marker going to stop the try...NO, did the marker over sell what happened...YES...but if Prince doesn’t touch him there is no problem.

I had a minor problem with the Jamie Lyon bat/deflection in scoring his third try on Sunday but that problem only came on replay a day or so later. Watching it live, or more accurately delayed on Channel 9, I didn’t have a major problem with that or the torso one. Even if I don’t agree with the rules, they are the rules.

As for inexperienced refs...there’s only one way to fix that and that’s what we’re doing. I think there is merit in having one guy control the whole match and the other play ‘pocket’ but that’s not how the system works at this time. I’m more than happy to give the refs a go, take the good with the bad and bag them out when required!!

Rep Season

As a fan I like the current rep season with players backing up etc but I can understand the valid reasons for change. Player burnout is a big issue and the theory of rep games losing prestige due to their shotgun nature is a valid one too.

At the moment though I think the current set up is the best we’re going to get. The only other change I can think of is to have a 24 week NRL season where each team gets 12 home games and 12 away with no byes and rep games played alone on weekends. Even that extends the season by a month though.

So basically I don’t have an alternative unless they can make an 18 week season, 12 home games and 6 away, work but I don’t really want to see that.

Four Corners and Player Behaviour

Most rugby league fans would have at least heard about the Four Corners program the other night, or they at least know that Matthew Johns’ media career and reputation is now in tatters. The day after I happened to have a journalism ethics class in which the hundred or so students generally agreed the program raised some very important issues but from a journalistic point of view didn’t give a very balanced view.

As a rugby league fan, who does find Johns entertaining and enjoys his work, I hope that maybe, just maybe, this is the wakeup call the code needs. Now maybe finally players will see a rugby league persons’ career shattered because of an off-field incident and they will pull their heads in.

I did not see the news report breaking the Johns story last week and the first I heard about it was on the Footy Show. Once I heard about it I was disgusted, angry and didn’t want to see or hear from him again that night. While some of that has died down, I have no real interest in seeing Johns pass judgment on other players anymore.

Look, I don’t think he has gone forever and I may be able to accept him on TV again. He is only guilty of “infidelity and stupidity”, neither a criminal offence. Had he broken the law he would have been charged. But I can’t hack him passing judgements on other players I’m sorry so if he’s gone for good, I can live with that.

I will mention though that Andrew Johns is a regular on Channel 9 less than 18 months after his public disgrace and confession of cheating when he played so anything can happen.

Any thoughts I would love to read them: andrew.keyte@gmail.com or you can comment below.

Tips this week: Brisbane, Bulldogs, Roosters, Cronulla, Warriors, Manly, Souths, Storm
Last week: 2/4 (Total: 37/68)
Winning percentage: 54%

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Rep Suspensions

I’m not happy today…hello though by the way and I hope you’re well. Yes, I’m not happy with our suspension system in the NRL. New Zealand hooker Isaac Luke, less than 48 hours before a Test Match, found himself at the NRL judiciary last night defending a little striking charge that threatened to rule him out for the Test, and ONLY the Test. And the worse thing is he got suspended. I feel really bad for Luke and think it’s grossly unfair that anyone should have a one game suspension ruling them out of a Test match.

We have our suspension system all wrong where a game at the highest level is worth the same value as a game between team 15 and 16. I remember a few years ago where Ruben Wiki was not allowed to play for New Zealand but was free to play a couple of days later (for Canberra I presume).

I can’t see how that can be justified. Can you imagine if Darren Lockyer, a 300 game veteran who’s never been suspended, was charged with a tiny offence following his game last weekend and was suspended for one match? What if that one match was the Test Match, where he is Australian Captain, but he is more than welcome to play Sunday against Manly?

How is that right…?

I can’t see how a regular home and away season match is worth the same as a one-off Test Match, or any representative match for that manner.

Another example: Michael Ennis. He went to the judiciary last week to fight a charge where if he lost he would have been sidelined for two matches. That would have ruled him out for the Bulldogs match against the Tigers last Sunday AND the City/Country match this week. However, if the Bulldogs didn’t have the bye, he would have been available as soon as 24 hours following the City/Country game.

Same can be said for Cowboys forward Luke O’Donnell. He fought hard to get a two game suspension downgraded to one so he would be available for either City or Australia this weekend. Thankfully he was successful and is playing rep football this weekend. Had he failed, O’Donnell would have missed the Cowboys match against Parramatta last week; he then would have missed a representative game Friday night BUT would have played against the Dragons on Saturday night.

My point…representative games are worth more than regular season games and players shouldn’t be punished by minor offences denying them the chance to play for their country or state. I think representative matches…City/Country, State of Origin and Internationals…should be worth two regular season games.

That means a two game suspension is either worth two club games or one representative game. That would have allowed Ennis and O’Donnell, should they have failed at the judiciary, to miss two club games but play a representative game in between.

Let’s take a hypothetical look here too…let’s say Justin Hodges was cited for something following the Broncos loss to Newcastle last week and was facing a two match suspension. It should be up to the player to decide if he is going to skip the Test Match on Friday night and play for the Broncos on Sunday or if he can play the Test Match then miss two games for the Broncos.

That probably opens up a can of worms in both club interest and proving a player was to be selected anyway. And that’s somewhere for the NRL to step in and rule on. It was granted that Hodges was very unlikely not to be selected for Australia this weekend but someone like a Darius Boyd might have had a tougher time proving he was definitely going to be selected.

While my theory has a couple of flaws there is nothing there the NRL couldn’t rule on and make work. I just think it’s unfair to give rep games the same value as regular games when they are clearly different. Representative football should be the best of the best and minor indiscretions shouldn’t rob the player, or fans, of that spectacle. We’re only hurting ourselves.

That’s what happened last night. Nothing against Dene Halatau but this bizarre system has robbed us, the fans, of seeing New Zealand’s best hooker against Australia’s best hooker on Friday night. Any thoughts please email to andrew.keyte@gmail.com or leave a comment below.

Tips this week: Cowboys, Titans, Broncos, Storm
Last week: 4/8 (Total: 35/64)
Winning percentage: 55%

Talk to you later,
Keyto