Thursday, October 1, 2009

The Things we've learnt

Well hello and welcome to my final NRL opinion/blog piece of season 2009. I had a fantastic holiday last week but still had a footy fix – we listened to the Broncos beat the Dragons two weeks ago and the Eels topple the Bulldogs last week at the beach, sitting around the camp fire. So now we’re all set for Sunday afternoon where the mighty Melbourne Storm takes on the red-hot Parramatta Eels.

I was going to preview this match but I always find build up to Grand Finals and Origins a little bit boring. Instead, I will offer a few thoughts at the end but for now I’m going to borrow something from Rove McManus and talk about the things we’ve learnt in season 2009.

Off-field behaviour
Ok, let’s start with the shit.. You have to wonder if things are that bad or is the public demanding this information thus leading to heavy media scrutiny and publication? No one wants to see criminal acts such as sexual and physical assaults ... they need to be made public and offenders dealt with accordingly. But is it really that bad if a player has too many drinks and stumbles down Cronulla mall or someone takes a slash on a wall and gets warned away by police? It is the media world we live in and while there’s demand from the audience, nothing will change. While we’re hearing more these days about ‘player misbehaviour’, the reality is most incidents are no worse then what happened 20 years ago ... in fact players are probably better behaved.

Pay structures
The biggest story at the Broncos this year was the defection of Karmichael Hunt to the AFL from next year. Where the game needs to look is to how to generate more money and keep players from defecting to England or another code. I’m not sure what the answer is, but the best suggestion I have heard is to allow a certain number of players at each club to earn as much as they can from 3rd party sponsorships. Something definitely needs to be done at the NRL though.

Two Refs – Potential, but not a long term thing
If it stays I won’t be too concerned but if it goes next year I won’t shed a tear. The biggest concern it raised was the awful quality of our referees. Do you know the reserve referee for the Grand Final this weekend is Ben Cummins? He is a guy who ‘Gus’ Gould on Triple M screamed “HOW DO YOU HAVE A JOB??” during a Monday Night game this year! The overall quality of the current referees is poor, but I too am starting to think their job has become over-complicated. Ideally I would like to see things simplified and maybe after two more years, when these guys have gained more experience, we go back to having one ref.

The most consistent thing about consistency are the inconsistencies (Video Refs)
I give up ... how was Billy Slater not even considered for a try last week and Dallas Johnson awarded one against the Broncos last week? I’m with ‘Gus’ in saying the Video Referee is a joke and probably the biggest blight on the game. It’s honestly a toss of the coin job. If we get rid of the Video Ref next season, again I won’t shed a tear. I don’t think that’s the answer: the best thing to do is allow referee discretion by simplifying rules and stripping the Video Ref down to the barest duties.

Origin is alive
The Maroons have won four in a row but after THAT match up here in July, we can’t wait for next year! For the overall good of the concept the Blues need to win a series or two soon, but for now I’ll cheer on a 5-time Queensland championship.

Queensland is strong
Origin aside, rugby league is super strong in Queensland. Suncorp Stadium and Skilled Park are world class venues while I understand the game is alive and well up north. There are still two dreams for next season: three Queensland sides in the top eight and an all-Queensland Grand Final!

The greatest game
Figures have shown that rugby league is the number one winter sports in Queensland and New South Wales and with a pretty tame cricket summer ahead, I say bring on NRL 2010!!

The Grand Final
I know a few people who have been on the Storm for a while, I was one of them. For two months I have told anyone who would listen I wasn’t prepared to write them off. After seeing them destroy Manly I thought the Storm would brush past either the Broncos or Dragons last week. They have class all over the field and I think they’ll beat the Eels quite well on Sunday. Wouldn’t surprise me if it’s a 20 point margin.

Having said that, like everyone else the Eels have grown on me. I’ve enjoyed watching them play in the last two months and they made history by qualifying from 8th spot. I think their best chance on Sunday is to play from in front. If they fall 8-10 points behind, I can’t see them coming back. Hopefully it will be a good game fitting of a great season.

Tip this week: Storm
Last two weeks: 2/4 (Total: 117/194) – Eels & Broncos; then Dogs & Broncos
Winning percentage: 60%

So, that’s it for the season then. I’ve had a good time bringing this to you each week and I’d like to thank everyone who has sent me mail and opinions throughout the year. I can always be reached at andrew.keyte@gmail.com and hopefully I’ll be back again next year. Be sure to check out Sports Australia over the summer where I may pop up with some cricket stuff.

Have a great summer, Keyto

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Skilled Park

G’day everyone and hello to you all again. Tonight I’m going to talk to you about Skilled Park; a simply wonderful venue for rugby league. I made my maiden trip down there last week, dressed in my best Broncos jersey, and was blown away by the facility. I’m a regular at Suncorp Stadium and south-east Queensland is so lucky to have two world-class rugby league stadiums.

I didn’t intend to head down to the game but when the opportunity came up I jumped at it. My mate and I, who have attended a stack of footy games together, drove down to a nearby area before catching the train one stop to Robina. That station is 200 metres away from Skilled Park and they have set up a nice, easy walkway directly to the venue.

One of the surprising things about the ground is it is literally in the middle of nowhere. I had no idea about that; there were actually cows grazing on surrounding paddocks. Inside the ground is pretty special too.

All reports of it being a ‘mini Suncorp Stadium’ are correct. We were sitting about halfway up the southern stand, behind the goal posts, and had the same sort of view we get in Brisbane. Of course we were in enemy territory too, another first for me. That was great, I wouldn’t call it hostile as such, but I could definitely feel I was in the minority.

There are two massive features of Skilled Park that hit me: flags and noise.

It seemed every Titans fan had a flag! Their ground announcer made the call to start waving flags and looking across the crowd it was a sea of blue. It actually looked like a wave, it was almost hypnotic but a fabulous thing to see as well. Television doesn’t do it justice, you’d have to go down and see it for yourself. I’m not sure if flags are banned at Suncorp Stadium, but I have never seen anything like that up here.

But the noise, my God it was loud. I’d heard the stories about the place but you could almost see the sounds bouncing off the walls. The best way I can describe the design of the stadium is like a cylinder along each boundary. The whole thing just echoes and it’s like the noise can’t escape out the roof. The cheer when Kevin Gordon snared an intercept in the second half and ran 100 metres to score was the loudest I’d heard in rugby league. I’ve been to State of Origins and the one event I can recall coming close was the fight after the ‘up-and-under’ in Origin III this year.

Unfortunately there are some areas for the stadium to work on.

Leaving the venue was a real challenge and almost dampened the whole experience. As mentioned we only had to travel one stop on the train to get to the car but that trip took us over an hour. There was a capacity 27,000 crowd there but unfortunately they only have one entry/exit walkway. This wasn’t helped by a series of ‘bottlenecks’ where the crowd was forced to merge into narrower walkways or stadium exits. Some of this trip to the public transport was done in sheer darkness too which could cause problems should someone fall over or a young child get separated.

I did want to write a news story on this for our uni website, www.subtropic.com.au, but ran out of time this week. I have heard from Skilled Park Venue Manager David Lloyd about some of these issues.

Mr Lloyd claimed all patrons were exited and on public transport within an hour and the lack of size of Robina Station (two platforms, one direction) compared to Roma Street or Milton Station (many platforms, various directions), located near Suncorp Stadium, meant it is impossible to compare the systems.

“The venue has a transport plan and over 90% of patrons utilise the public transport services when attending events at Skilled Park,” Mr Lloyd said.

“Whenever 27,000 plus people try and exit the venue all at the same time going in the same direction there may be some minor delays getting on to the transport Hub.”

That really was the only blip on the Skilled Park experience. Not being familiar with the area it’s not appropriate for me to suggest viable suggestions. I’m sure the good people will work on it. That aside, Skilled Park is a fabulous venue and I strongly urge every rugby league fan to try and take a chance to watch their team play at Skilled Park.

Semi-Finals
As for the Titans, I reckon they’ll have a real task on their hands this week. I’m honestly struggling to see them beat the Eels on Friday. Parramatta are playing well and I’m not sure the Titans have the game to win a massive semi-final. They’ve been towelled up by Manly and conceded 40 points against the Broncos last week.

I hope I’m wrong, I really do. Every single Queensland rugby league fan wants to see an all-Queensland Grand Final one day and my word, a Titans/Broncos decider this year would be awesome!

The Broncos I’m a little more confident in. I, like most people, thought the Dragons had a play left this season, something big for the backend of the year. Now, I’m not so sure. I won’t write them off but I can definitely see them slipping out the back door. The Broncos are playing well and despite the 40-32 score last week, I think they have solid defence. Combine that with a lacklustre Dragons attack and I can see a 6-8 point win for Brisbane on Saturday night.

Tips this week: Eels, Brisbane
Last week: 3/4 (Total: 115/190)
Winning percentage: 61%

I’m going on holidays this weekend for a week and won’t actually see the Broncos v Dragons match, but please feel free to email me on andrew.keyte@gmail.com for your thoughts on the finals, Skilled Park or anything else.

I won’t be here next week but my early pick for the Grand Final is Melbourne Storm. They look fresh and are full of dangerous players; they destroyed Manly last week and look really good. Storm to play Bulldogs in the big one.

But if I have things my way, it’ll be Titans vs. Broncos. We, up here in Queensland, can only hope!

I’ll be back in two weeks for a Grand Final preview,Keyto

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Silly Sunday’s, Terrific Tuesday’s & Footy Finals

Good evening all and welcome back to the Qualifying Finals edition of my weekly ramblings. I don’t have anything decent to talk about this week … I have no idea who is going to win their games this weekend. I can tell you I was happy to see the Roosters take the wooden spoon last weekend. I went to the Broncos again on Sunday and must say, my headgear’s off to Raiders fullback Josh Dugan for his two great tackles/body-blocks on Dave Taylor in that game. Very brave effort from a player, who I think, is going to be pretty good. Tonight I will run through a couple of things making news this week.

South Sydney’s Silly Sunday
Ok, we’ve had plenty of crap in the game this year that’s seemed to occur about once every 2-3 weeks. We were due … and the Bunnies delivered. I don’t know why but I found this story to be a little bit funny: Big guy leaving the club, not his best season but had his moments, coach on the piss, does something that leaves the player embarrassed, player decks coach.

I just wonder how many other Bunnies players or fans wanted to see the same thing after this season. Hopefully something resembling the truth will come out eventually but if not…Player smacked his coach and I got a laugh.

Dally M’s

The NRL had their prestigious Dally M awards ceremony the other night. I am not a fan of these shows whether they are Dally M’s, AB Medal, Oscars, Logies or whatever … I don’t watch. But I do read the results and I think they were pretty spot on this season.

The Bulldogs were the big winners with a heap of positional awards handed out plus the coach and rookie of the year. If anything that is all good, official recognition of a strong season. But of course the best recognition is on Grand Final Day.

Jarryd Hayne won the Dally M medal for best player in the competition and it’s hard to argue against that. Hayne, like the Eels, had a slow start to the season but for the last three to four months at least he’s been head and shoulders above the rest and a deserved winner.

Moving Finals
I understand most of the talk in Sydney during the week was about why the NRL should or shouldn’t force the Dragons to take their home final against the Eels this week to a bigger stadium. Kogarah Oval holds 18,000 tops, with only half allocated seats, and the argument was this game could draw anywhere up to 60,000 people.

I’m happy for the game to stay there … as a TV viewer Kogarah is probably a better option on Sunday afternoon. The NRL was short-sighted in not granting themselves power to shift games like this. As far as I’m concerned the Dragons are allowed to play wherever they want and no one could blame them for making their choice.

If anything this should be major motivation for the Eels. They can take a real seize mentality into this contest now. But they have to show up this time … they were on the wrong bus last week and now there is no second chance.

All-Queensland Final
South-east Queensland is buzzing this week ahead of the Titans v Broncos game on Saturday night at Robina. Everyone is picking their sides and really looking forward to the game. I’m sensing that no one wants the loser punted out of the competition, but there’s a real possibility that may happen.

The Broncos are favourites but like the Eels above, the Gold Coast will have a real point to prove and will be so determined to win. It’s their maiden finals appearance, they’re at home and they’re playing the Broncos. And rugby league fans in Queensland will be the big winners.

Queensland Cup Grand Final
Northern Pride, one of two feeder teams to the Cowboys, and Sunshine Coast Sea Eagles, feeders for Manly, will contest the QCup Decider this weekend. The game was taken away from Suncorp Stadium months ago, I think due to a possible date (not time) clash with an NRL final, and awarded to Kawana. For those outside of south-east Queensland, Kawana is on the Sunshine Coast and is the home ground for the Sea Eagles.

It should be a very interesting game with a few NRL-experienced players running around. For the Pride, their halfback Chris Shepperd has been described as a ‘Brett Kimmorley’ player for them and holds the key. I haven’t seen much of the Sea Eagles but the ‘T-Rex’ Tony Williams has been in great recent form and will be playing five-eighth this weekend.

Live coverage is available through the ABC outlets from 2pm Saturday and if like me you will be avoiding doing something constructive, I suggest you take a look.

Tips this week: Storm, Broncos, Bulldogs, Dragons
Last week: 5/8(Total: 112/186)
Winning percentage: 60%

Well that’s it for this week, please email your thoughts to andrew.keyte@gmail.com, and I will see you again soon.

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Hello all and welcome to what is the penultimate week of the 2009 NRL competition and most judges, now more than at any stage this year, have no idea who is going to win this thing! In fact it’s even proving a hard task working out who is playing where next week let alone Grand Final day! Let’s have a look why:

The following takes place between 7:30pm Friday Rd 25 and 9pm Monday Rd 25

The Broncos defeat a spirited North Queensland but don’t have things going entirely their own way. They scrap hard for a win, drop a lot of football, but eventually out-class their northern cousins.

Parramatta Eels don’t just beat the Panthers, they annihilate the Penrith side in what was meant to be top eight shoot-out. It was a shoot-out alright, a dead set fatality as the Eels blazed Penrith off the park with a 48-6 thumping to all but confirm a spot in the final eight.

Moving on to Saturday where the Gold Coast Titans get locked in an attacking battle with a desperate, yet high octane, Wests Tigers. The visitors fought back a couple of times before the Titans turned to veteran Mat Rogers late in the game to get them home. The win, and future results, gave the Gold Coast a shot at a top two finish and meant they passed their toughest test in a month.

The Melbourne Storm, welcoming back star Greg Inglis, said goodbye to the ‘Graveyard’ by burying the Roosters by 40 points. It was clean, methodical and very ‘Melbourne Storm’. Just when you think this team is slipping, they go and fire a few more bullets.

Then came the big one...

The St George-Illawarra Dragons are beaten, humbled, embarrassed and thrashed 41-6 by Souths…South Sydney Rabbitohs of all teams!! An underperforming unit, a few weeks out of finals contention and a big casualty ward, put the cleaners through the side that spent all year leading the comp and carrying premiership favouritism. The Dragons have lost three in a row and are in some trouble. The one thing in their favour is the master coach Bennett, a man who has seen it all, but jeez they’re running out of time to bounce back.

Enter Sunday and what a Sunday it was. Referees’ rob Cronulla of a victory over Manly which not only resulted in the Sea Eagles moving within a point of a top four berth, but also ended the faint hopes of the Tigers. I ended up watching the whole game and, withstanding the fact I should have won $100 on a Sharkies 1-12 win, I was quite shattered for Cronulla. I don’t support that team, but I felt worse for them Sunday than I did when the Broncos lost to the Storm in the last minute of a semi final last year.

Surely that would be the end of the drama with a day of celebration for Hazem to follow?

Nope, the Bulldogs easily beat the Warriors to move into first on the ladder but lose their on-field general Brett Kimmorley. He controls everything at that club with their entire game played out under his command. They have some decent replacements in Roberts, Ennis and Daniel Holdsworth … but neither of them are Brett Kimmorley. ‘Noddy’ might be back for the Grand Final, but the Dogs have to get there first.

Then there is Newcastle who simply had to beat the Raiders in Canberra on Monday night to seal their place in the eight. Right, sounds easy hey? Not quite…The Raiders explode out of the blocks, bring some weather with them, dominate the game, get in a fight and win quite comfortably. Hhmm…Newcastle v Penrith on Sunday for a spot in the top eight. Wow!

So how do we pick a winner from all this? Parramatta are the form team, the Dragons and Bulldogs have sat at the top all year, Manly and Melbourne have done it before, Brisbane are back, the Titans are new at this caper and whoever makes eighth can beat anyone on their day.

I still like Melbourne a bit but not sure why…stuff it, bet on the Dogs because they’ll pay alright now without Kimmorley...

Who am I kidding, I have no idea!

Tips this week: Dragons, Bulldogs, Warriors, Manly, Cronulla, Cowboys, Newcastle, Brisbane
Last week: 7/8(Total: 107/178)
Winning percentage: 60%

Who do you think can win this thing? You can share your thoughts at andrew.keyte@gmail.com or comment below.

Have fun,
Keyto

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Big Guns Return

Well it must be Finals time because all of the contenders are getting their big guns back. Hello everyone and welcome to the 25th edition of my weekly dribble. While players at clubs like the Rabbitohs and Tigers are doing as their premiership hopes are, dropping off the radars, the powerhouse teams are getting their big guns back for the end of season shootout. Tonight I will have a look at the four big names returning this week and how they will shape the 2009 Finals.

Israel Folau
This bloke is a superstar but of the big four he is probably less important to his teams’ success. Make no mistake about it, the Broncos or any other team would move mountains to get this man mountain firing in September. Folau is a try scorer and a real go to man. When Brisbane need a try they can always call ‘kick it to Izzie’ knowing there’s a better than 50% chance of him delivering. He will be returning in the centres though, probably on the left side of the field. In his career Folau has been primarily a right side winger or centre. So the change may take a bit of time or Folau, being the superstar that he is, might have no trouble at all. Regardless, the Broncos attack is much stronger with Folau roaming around somewhere.

Greg Inglis
The Storm lifted his suspension today and the NRL rubber-stamped his return for this weekend. As above, GI is an absolute superstar of the game. Inglis tends to go missing a bit at times during the season but he seems like a bloke that loves the big stage. His best days have been in Origins, Test Matches and Finals so every other team has to look out from here on in. The two weeks off might have been physically good for Inglis as well after a busy rep period. His presence alone makes the Storm a much more formidable team.

Ben Hannant
The Bulldogs haven’t struggled without him in terms of win/loss, but Hannant is their forward leader and has big game experience. In the last couple of years Hannant has risen to Origin level, won a Grand Final and become a regular 70 minute prop forward. The ‘Polar Bear’ leads by example and the rest of the Bulldogs pack follow him, allowing Kimmorley and Ennis to do their thing before guys like Morris, Idris and Patten to score the points. Then there’s Hazem to kick the goals. All of this revolves around the forwards and Hannant is the new ‘Steve Price’ of the Bulldogs. Hannant’s return is a major boost heading into the finals.

Brett Stewart
This is the return that everyone in Sydney is talking about…and most other rugby league regions as well. Stewart played just two games this year before injuring his knee…some five, nearly six months ago. If you believe the papers Stewart is expected to be the ‘saviour’ or the ‘x-factor’ to propel Manly towards another Grand Final. My word that’s a big ask…the guy has had a pretty nasty knee injury. Darren Lockyer and Willie Mason took 18 months to get over their bad knee injuries and most other players follow similar paths.

Granted Stewart did not have a knee reconstruction like Lockyer and Mason, but knee injuries appear to be the hardest to come back from. I would doubt the Manly camp are pinning their hopes solely on Stewart, I would hope they’re not. It’s great for the game to have a star player come back now but realistically it would be unfair to expect anything more from Stewart other than to be solid at the back and to pop up in attack. He won’t be at the level we saw last year, but if he can be even a shadow of that player then Manly will remain a force in season 2009.

So, they are the big four coming back this week into clubs I believe have qualified for the finals. We saw Souths drop out of the race last week and I think a depleted Tigers team will suffer the same fate on the Gold Coast this weekend.

The way I see it the loser of tomorrow night’s Parramatta v Penrith game will probably drop out too. The only way for the loser of that game to qualify would be to win their Rd 26 match and hope one of Manly, Brisbane or Newcastle lose their last two games. Exciting times for all involved.

Tips this week: Brisbane, Eels, Gold Coast, Dragons, Storm, Manly, Bulldogs, Canberra
Last week: 6/8(Total: 100/170)
Winning percentage: 59%

Thanks for reading and if you have a comment or a complaint you can find me at andrew.keyte@gmail.com, Facebook or using the comment function below.

Enjoy your week,
Keyto

Thursday, August 20, 2009

I Love My Footy!

Good evening everyone and just how good has the footy been? Last weekend was outstanding, one of the most enjoyable weekends of rugby league I can remember. And, we’re in for even more fun this weekend with the official program, Big League, declaring it as the ‘Round of the Decade’. You can smell the Finals and I think it’s fantastic that so many teams are alive and almost every game from here on in really means something.

Let’s jump back a week and walk through just why the footy was so good. Of course we all know what had dominated the headlines…another, must be around at least the 10th, off-field incident was the talk of the town. But just when you think this great game is at its lowest point you get a whole heap of talented, committed footballers delivering some outstanding skills, resulting in some high-class entertainment.

Friday night I loved the Cowboys v Bulldogs game. And, I learnt a lot from it too. I’m not convinced the Cowboys can make the top eight. For the second week in a row they fell away and I’m not saying this is what happened, but seeing it for the second time in a row had me thinking of a kid throwing the toys out of the cot. The Cows didn’t give up or anything like that; they just ran out of questions and then couldn’t find the right answers.

It also told me that the Bulldogs are going to be right up there as the team to beat. Most knew that anyway; but in Townsville they had nothing going for them and lost three props but still won fairly easily.

I stayed on to watch the Titans game against Souths and of course the biting thing was the sticking point. Watching it ‘live’, I did hear Jamie Simpson yell at the touch judge he’d been bitten as soon as it happened. And on replay it did not look good for Zillman. However it happened and whether or not he bit, for mine there’s a clear second movement consistent with a bite. The vision didn’t look good and I think the 4 week suspension he got last night was about right.

I covered the Manly v Roosters game Saturday night and the only thing worth watching was the tries scored by the Sea Eagles. They’re a really funny team at the moment and I don’t quite know what to make of them. This Sunday in Melbourne is a massive test for them.

I watched the game of the season after that, Canberra v Dragons. This game was exactly what rugby league was about…it had drama, entertainment, big hits, fights, sin bins, great tries, big crowd, terrific comeback…it had the lot. As a viewer it was brilliant to watch, and I reckon people want all of that. I’m sure many fans of the NRL watch to see players doing things they could only dream of doing themselves. How many of us fans could do what Canberra’s Josh Miller did to Weyman…pull off such a hit and then pump his side up?

The sheer entertainment in this game was brilliant, I can’t talk highly enough about it. It does make you wonder where the Canberra Raiders could be. They have a magnificent team of kids and footballers down there and all I think are about ready to peak. I think most of them are sticking around next year and if they stay injury free, the Raiders should be thinking Top 4 in 2010.

The Dragons will be sweet, a loss shouldn’t hurt them much.

Parramatta put the Warriors to the sword so good on them. Their big game is tomorrow night against the Wests Tigers…the winner will just about seal a top eight spot I think. As for the Warriors, bring on 2010!

I had a great time at the Broncos on Sunday. After two months of garbage it was good to see my side rack up a few points. People, even me, quickly forget the talent in the side. When you look down the list there aren’t many dud names there. If the Broncos can play like they did Sunday for the rest of the year they’ll give themselves a shot. If they play like they had been, don’t even bother showing up for the finals.

I felt a bit sorry for the Panthers; they simply had no answer to such a second half onslaught. I’m not giving up on them yet and I think they’ll beat the Rabbitohs quite comfortably in Penrith this weekend.

I didn’t see any of the Sharks v Tigers game but it seemed more of the same…Cronulla decimated and not up to NRL standard while the Tigers were at their attacking best. As before, Cronulla looking to 2010 and the Tigers have it all to do tomorrow night against the Eels.

It was good to see Newcastle have a win (which by the way I predicted before Brian Smith left on Saturday). The Knights are a real unknown here too, big test for them against the Cowboys on Saturday. As for Melbourne, I’m not putting the black line through them yet. They’ll still have plenty to say this season.

Tips this week: Brisbane, Eels, Cowboys, Penrith, Warriors, Titans, Storm, Bulldogs
Last week: 5/8(Total: 94/162)
Winning percentage: 58%

Right so that’ll do it for this week. Keep your emails coming in andrew.keyte@gmail.com and I’ll be back next week.

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, August 13, 2009

My GOD...I agree with Gus!

Phil ‘Gus’ Gould is arguably the most opinionated man and expert in the rugby league world. He has managed to irk just about everyone at some point, especially Queenslanders, with his opinions on all things he perceives to be right and wrong with the game. But, you know, the man is nearly always right! Where he goes wrong is that he often comes across as such an arrogant prick and most people tend to switch off, bag him or rebel against him. Hello everyone and welcome to a week where I agree with the great Gus-Wonder!!

Video Referees...Gould has been so vocal against these guys and the whole refereeing system and structure in 2009. And you know what, he’s banged on so much about these things that I finally agree with him. Listening to Monday Night Football last week on Triple M, where Gus is the co-commentator, it became painstakingly obvious to me that he is on to something. In a nutshell, the video refereeing system is boring. It slows the game down and it bores the fans as they take minutes to scrutinise super slow-motion vision.

It was painful to listen to let alone watch on TV...not to mention those poor hearty souls at the ground who had to sit through it. Here you had a classic example of two shit teams (Brisbane and Cronulla) in a real dog of a match that was slowed down by the ground officials constantly checking upstairs.

Seriously, are there any league fans that care if a player has lost control of a ball for a split second and therefore isn’t awarded a try? On Monday Night Football Gus makes two points:

“If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it’s a duck!”
Translation – If it looks like a try, it’s a try!!

We don’t need to slow every little thing down by going upstairs to see who touched what or who bumped who...there are FOUR on-ground officials to make those decisions man!! And if they can’t see blatant discretions, than good luck to the team that benefits! Things like that over a long season will eventually even themselves out.

The other point Gus regularly makes is the video referee should only be used for grounding of the ball. I can live with that, but I don’t really want to see the super slow motion stuff. I don’t care about separation and things like that...all players and most fans like myself know when something looks like a try and we could all live with it.

I regularly follow the Queensland Cup and it seems to get by fine without video referees, in fact it gets by fine with just one actual referee! While on that subject, I’m not sold on these two officials we have had in the NRL this season. They are just getting things wrong and it’s very frustrating when, normally, the younger ref blows a penalty that just makes no sense. Some of these blokes have no idea...it’s not their fault, they aren’t ready, but under the current set up they need to be.

There are however two refs I can’t stand watching and they have been around for a few years now. Part of my job is to watch rugby league and I cringe when I check my games each week and see either of these two blokes in control. And for the record Tonie Carroll and his stray knee a month or so ago took out the wrong bloke!

While the referee’s are hurting the game a bit, it’s something we can overcome. As for off-field dramas, when is ENOUGH GOING TO BE ENOUGH!!

A few players’ antics away from the field are hurting the most. You can argue player’s aren’t role models and are over-scrutinised until the cows come home but the actions of Greg Inglis, whatever they were, have already hurt the code, again.

Obviously the matter is before the courts and will be played out in due process, but Greg’s NRL career could be over. What a damn shame.

The worst part is, as good as GI is on the field he seemed to have come on in leaps and bounds off the field. I watched him on the Footy Show two weeks ago and sat there thinking how good it was to see this bloke all grown up. He wasn’t that shy kid who broke in a few years ago, he was funny and spoke confidently. He’s done charity work, carved it up on the field at all levels and was a star.

Now, whatever happened on the weekend, it may be tarnished forever. Brett Stewart’s name hasn’t been the same since the start of the season. These guys can turn it all around (see: Sailor, W) but as a fan it’s so disappointing to see this stuff dominating the news.

But to finish on a positive...how exciting is the run home to the finals!! Plenty of teams are still in contention, I can’t tip a winner to save my life and just about every game has something of great importance riding on it.

For whatever it’s worth, in my opinion the top five (Dragons, Dogs, Titans, Storm and Panthers) are all pretty much locked in. As for the other three spots...I have no idea. Without having an in-depth look at the runs home for all the sides, I would say Manly and North Queensland will likely play in the finals.

As for the last spot, I would like to say Brisbane but on current form they won’t do anything even if they get there. Same with Newcastle. I would like to see the Tigers make it but if the Eels or Souths continue their good form they will be worthy finishers as well.

Tips this week: Cowboys, Souths, Manly, Parramatta, Dragons, Tigers, Broncos, Newcastle
Last week: 6/8(Total: 89/154)
Winning percentage: 58%

I’m off to a game this weekend, got an afternoon off so heading out to my first Broncos game of the season to watch them play my number two team Penrith. Should be good fun and I’m really looking forward to the battle between Hodges and Jennings. Anyway, any thoughts before then hit me up at andrew.keyte@gmail.com or comment below.

See ya later,
Keyto

Thursday, August 6, 2009

The night it all went to very wrong...

Evening all and thanks again for stopping by…so my team the Brisbane Broncos are in trouble huh? Worst crop of Broncos ever? They gave up against Canberra and were flogged? Yep…that’s just about the gist of what I’m going to write about.

As regular readers would know the Broncos are my team. I have followed them for at least the last 15 years and as a fan have enjoyed tremendous success. Six Premierships, countless superstars and every year experiencing the thrill of the one in eight chance to win the title. I can’t see that happening in 2009…in fact last weekend I was questioning if we would even win another game this season.

The surprise wasn’t so much that the Broncos lost 56-0, but we lost to Canberra! The freakin CANBERRA RAIDERS towelled us up? No disrespect to the Raiders but My God, the RAIDERS beat US…no they didn’t beat us…they smashed us!! Canberra pulled our pants down and had their way with us. It was the most embarrassing night ever to be a Broncos fan.

Stupidly I sat and watched the whole thing. By the end I was so appalled that I didn’t even want us to get a try. I remember texting a mate of mine saying how lucky it was we weren’t playing a ‘good team’. The Dragons would have deadset beat us by 100. I don’t think I’m exaggerating either, if the current Dragons team came up against those imposters the other night they would have won by 100 points.

I turned the game on expecting a win. There were no more excuses, yes there have been injuries but Broncos teams of yesteryear know when they need a win to launch an assault on the finals. Last week was it…it didn’t have to be pretty, but they needed to win. Not only did they not win, they didn’t even compete. Then, they gave up. And that was the worst thing.

I was very vocal earlier this season about the way Parramatta were playing, but when it’s your own team that dishes up such garbage…embarrassing is the term that keeps popping up and that doesn’t even describe it properly. Early-season Parramatta would have beaten Brisbane the other night…my Queensland Cup side Wynnum-Manly would have beat them by 13+!!

Full credit to Canberra because they played what was in front of them and put on a nice show for their fans. But jeez the Broncos were ordinary.

So where did it come from? Injuries, the opposition, conditions, pressure, the coach?? I won’t confess to seeing a 56-0 drubbing coming up, no supporter would, but I mean the signs were there. People have mentioned this week the Broncos won six of their first seven or whatever it was. But no one has mentioned the fact they nearly got run-over, holding big leads, in almost every one of those wins.

Then there’s the off-field shit which has been building in the public spotlight for 12 months but most likely festering for longer. One of friends suggested there were too many Kiwi’s and New South Welshman in the side who didn’t understand what it meant to wear the Broncos jersey. I laughed it off at first but then had a think…could he be right?

Or is it ‘Ivan the Terrible’; the rookie coach now under a mountain of pressure. I do feel sorry for him and don’t want to see him sacked. But one thing has irked me and that has been talk this isn’t ‘his’ team. Ok, guys like Ashton Sims and Joel Clinton (and no Petero) maybe not…but everyone else at the club (and more importantly everyone who is not) has to be on his watch!

Wayne Bennett announced early last year he was leaving. So for mine that meant Ivan had a say in every signing or releasing of players since Rd 1, 2008. That includes names like Setu, Te’o, Ennis, Hannant and Stagg.

I don’t have any answers, as a fan all I have left is hope. I don’t think we can make the finals, heck I’m not even sure we can beat Cronulla this week. But I still have hope and in rugby league that can be a pretty strong thing.

While not confident, I am adamant in saying nothing short of a win this weekend is good enough. We’ve sat through the mess of last week, heard the apologies this week. Now we don’t want a ‘good’ performance, we don’t want improvement. We want a 100% committed, no excuses, victory over the Sharks on Monday night.

Nothing else will do.

Tips this week: Melbourne, Dragons, Manly, Bulldogs, Titans, Tigers, Newcastle, Brisbane
Last week: 2/8(Total: 83/148)
Winning percentage: 56%

Agree, disagree or just feel like a chat you can find me at andrew.keyte@gmail.com or the other little buttons around the page.

Go the Broncos, please,
Keyto

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Karmichael Hunt

I am glad this story broke yesterday because I didn’t really have much to write about this week! Hello everyone and welcome to my take on the Karmichael Hunt defection to AFL...I figure everyone else is talking about it so why not me! I will open up by saying I am more surprised than disappointed, even now some 24 hours later I am not that disappointed to be honest.

I am a Karmichael fan, he plays for my club, and obviously my first preference would be for him to remain at the Broncos followed by him staying with rugby league. But nope, K pretty much shocked everyone with his announcement yesterday.

I had the TV on Fox Sports News yesterday morning and was only half-listening when I heard Hunt was expected to sign with the Gold Coast AFL club...WTF?? I did a little googling and read the report myself...news that breaks in this fashion is RARELY wrong, particularly when a “major announcement” is promoted for later in the day. I knew it was coming, but it was still a surprise. AFL, really?

I had never thought of AFL as a threat to rugby league especially up here in Brisbane; down south in Storm territory maybe, but not up here. Plus the rumours of Karmichael defecting to overseas rugby, or even the Dragons, had lead me to believe that’s what we would be reading about before the end of the season. So I guess we have to throw out a ‘well played’ to all involved on keeping this secret.

Am I disappointed in Karmichael Hunt like quite a few other fans, particularly up here...? No, I don’t think I am. Partly because we all knew this sort of announcement was coming, it’s been obvious for months through the papers and speculation that it was highly unlikely Hunt would be with the Broncos next year. I think a lot of people had probably accepted that and moved on. Just, we were all surprised at him playing AFL!!

I’m certainly not going to bag him for his decision. He’s only 22 years old, accomplished absolutely everything in rugby league and needs a change. Hunt is one of the most scrutinised players in Brisbane, particularly in the last 12 months, and I think it has shown on the field. At times he has looked tired...and at just 22 years of age and five full years in the NRL, who could blame him?

There’s people saying he defected for money and all that but K has said he wants the challenge. Who could bag him for that? His athletic ability is his main source of income and with only a maximum of 15 years to earn that big money, I couldn’t blame him even if it was for money. The man is off contract and wants a change. Who of us didn’t change jobs multiple times before 22 years of age? I’m not going to bag Karmichael Hunt or call him a traitor or anything...I hope he does really well in AFL because they could use a star athlete like him.

I’ve also had some people comment to me about the NRL scrapping salary caps and letting players earn as much as they want etc. I don’t know about that either...we were saying that when Sailor, Tuqiri and the others all defected but the game survived. And any scrapping of the salary cap will create a “haves” and a “have-nots” situation which will make for a sub-standard competition.

Yes it’s shit that we’ve lost a Karmichael Hunt but it opens up an opportunity for someone else. And the door remains open at the Broncos...there’s nothing to say that in three or five years he could come back an even better player. So good luck Karmichael...I won’t be cheering you (because I don’t really like your new code), but I wish you the very best!


Tips this week: Titans, Dragons, Brisbane, Penrith, Newcastle, Cronulla, Bulldogs, Manly
Last week: 2/8(Total: 81/140)
Winning percentage: 58%

Hopefully I can have a better week with the tips! If you have any thoughts on Karmichael Hunt or anything else please email me at andrew.keyte@gmail.com, use the feedback below or you can find me on Facebook.

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, July 23, 2009

The Biggest Little Men

Good evening all and thanks for stopping back. Thankfully there were no off-field incidents to ruin what I thought was a great weekend for rugby league last week. The double-header here in Brisbane was fantastic. For the first time in a long time I was genuinely disappointed I couldn’t get tickets to a game (well two, actually) of football. For those wondering, tickets were valued as normal (adult minimum at $27).

These double-headers should become regular events. I would love to see four a year:
1. ANZ Stadium on the first Sunday afternoon of the year...could even make it the Friday night however I like a Queensland ‘derby’ game that night too.
2.Melbourne involving a marquee game for the Storm (possibly the Broncos). For the other choose a team with a strong kiwi-connection to try and reach that audience down there. And if there’s an Origin or Test in Melbourne...play the double-header straight after.
3.New Zealand obviously involving the Warriors and another team with a strong Kiwi connection. The Roosters or Souths would be good options.
4.Suncorp Stadium straight after an Origin game as we saw last week.

Anyway, the main thing I wanted to talk about were some of the fullbacks we have in the game these days. There was no better way to follow up the Origin and double-header than having a sold out Sunday arvo game at Leichhardt Oval as we had. The biff was good and the whole atmosphere was outstanding...as it often is at these grounds. But what I wanted to talk about were the fullbacks.

It really was a clash of the titans out there...little Matty Bowen from the Cowboys up against littler Shannon Gallant of the Tigers. These two guys stand at a tick over 170cm each but are in there mixing it with monsters each and every week. You have to really admire the courage and bravery they show because let’s face it; as fullbacks they get belted more than any other player and as tiny warriors in a land of giants...these little guys get bashed more often than not.

Yet not once do you see these guys back down from a challenge. Anyone that saw the game last week might remember Carl Webb scoring a try before getting involved in a bit of a scuffle with a few Tigers. And you know who was right there having words with the big man? Little Shannon Gallant. Webb towered over the fullback and had a look on his face of, “Back down little man, I know and you know I could eat you for breakfast whenever I choose!” And it was true. But the point is little Gallant was right there, standing gallantly toe-to-toe with someone much bigger than him.

We’ve all probably heard the saying about not being the size of a dog in a fight and these guys sum it up beautifully. They also have their own unique skill-set...like Gallant slicing through the middle of the field then racing Bowen to score in the corner. That little moment was simply outstanding.

Then of course there’s Preston Campbell. There was a great moment the other night when Campbell, one-on-one with a defender, used the goal post to zig around and make a fool of his opponent to escape the in-goal area!! That was brilliant and fantastic to watch!

Earlier that night I was sitting watching that game when I thought I was about to see little Presto squashed to death. He gathered his kick-return and was faced with three or four big forwards looming down on him. So you think Preston would try and dart around them or die with the ball to try and soften the impact right? No...Campbell wound up and charged right into two of them. They hit him from both sides and I dead-set thought they’d pan-caked him! I think I even shut my eyes for a split second on impact! But nuh, not little Presto, he bounced straight back up and got on with the game.

I did feel a bit sorry for him when the coach pushed him into the centres to mark none other than the biggest pup in the kennel, Jamal Idris!! Talk about a miss-match, Idris had already trampled him once that night to score a try. But Campbell, as ever, held his own and handled the big unit pretty well.

I think it’s fantastic to have these little guys in the game. Don’t get me wrong, I think fullbacks like Billy Slater, Jarryd Hayne and Karmichael Hunt are great but the Bowen’s, Gallant’s and Campbell’s are pretty special too. Not only the way they dance around opponents but the way they get belted every time and just dust themselves off is outstanding and admirable to watch.

If they were in my team, I wouldn’t swap ‘em for no one.

Tips this week: Broncos, Manly, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Melbourne, Canberra, WARRIORS, Roosters
Last week: 3/7(Total: 79/132)
Winning percentage: 60%

Yes I have tipped the Broncos…they are my team and if the Titans are serious this year they should roll them by 30 points. Am I confident the Broncos can win? Not at all…but, as Justin Langer used to say, you just never know.

Also, and I have no reason or explanation why, but I’m on the bro’z to beat the Dragons in NZ this weekend. I have sworn off the Warriors at least three times this season...but now I’m back, and I don’t know why!

Any mail or opinion hit me up at andrew.keyte@gmail.com, comment below or on my Facebook.

Go the bro’z,
Keyto

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Oh to be a 'Queenslandah'

Hello everyone from a somewhat sleep deprived yet proud Queenslander! I was part of the 52,439 strong at the game last night and even though the Maroons went down, it was a heck of a night! First off, congratulations to the New South Wales Blues on a good win. They were by far the better side last night and I thought their captain Kurt Gidley was outstanding.

The talking point of course was the “thuggery” in the final couple of minutes. I wouldn’t call it thuggery, the NSW media has, but I wouldn’t. It was Origin football, Queensland spirit and sticking up for your mates. For me, someone who has been to I think four Origin games, the minutes following the Price hit was my Origin Moment. Let me take you through things the way it unfolded from my point of view and that of the other Queenslanders sitting in the bottom tier of the Southern Stand.

In the second half the Blues were running away from us and I had my eyes on the Jarryd Hayne try but could see Price and White in the corner of my eye. Very soon all eyes were on this stoush then this is all we could see: A NSW jersey come flying in from the side resulting in a Queensland player on the deck and shortly the medi-cab.

The Stadium only showed one inconclusive replay before (wisely) playing the ‘Do Not enter the field warning’. But the problem was 52,000 Queenslanders believe they saw one of the cheapest shots in Origin history with a Maroon hero blind-sided by a king hit. That’s when everyone saw Justin Hodges.

I’m not the biggest Hodges fan in the world...great player, but also a bit of a wanker. And that’s been highlighted this year playing next to Israel Folau. Two talented superstars, one who plays with niggle and one who doesn’t. But last night watching Hodges challenging the Blues players and firing up his team-mates to me just highlighted the mateship, pride and passion Queensland has. He was defending his mate; who remember after just one replay everyone thought was king hit by Waterhouse.

Then Waterhouse was sent off seemingly confirming a blindside king hit, something considered a dog act in rugby league. Queensland got the penalty, they’re running towards us, and everyone in the crowd knew it was going to be on. You could see Hodges firing the boys up, setting a plan, and leading the way! It was awesome!!

The bomb went up and the crowd stood as one...we wanted revenge and we didn’t care which Blue jersey it was on! Sure enough Gidley, who I must admire for his bravery all game and in taking that bomb knowing full well he was going to get belted for no fault of his own (other than his jersey!), caught the ball and was met by four or five Maroons. Hodges was there, Costigan too and the other usual suspects. It was back on, a scuffle really, but it was on. Old school Origin football!!

Ben Creagh was put in the bin for the Blues and he got re-sounding boos by the packed stadium. Then Sam Thaiday got called out and binned too. The Queenslanders were still fired up, Hodges gave him the high-fives and a hug while the entire Queensland contingent gave Thaiday a standing ovation. 52,000 Queenslanders applauding and cheering a man who had been removed from the field...it was cool!! I heard later Ray Warren said something like, “This crowd is going berserk”, and we were!!

There were “Queenslandah” chants going well after the final siren and even though beaten on the scoreboard, every Maroon fan seemed proud to wear the jersey. And that’s what it means to be a Queenslander. There is so much passion and pride there, I personally haven’t been prouder of Hodges for the way he was sticking up for his mate and leading the fight back at the Blues.

The atmosphere at the end of the night was something pretty special and I highly recommend any Queensland fan who has never done an Origin at Suncorp Stadium to save up and go next year. It is something you can’t really describe; you just have to try it!!

I read the Daily Telegraph website regularly and they are describing it all as thuggery etc. It wasn’t that bad...you’d think there were stiff arms and eye gouges the way these blokes are writing. One guy, in what was meant to be an objective article, called Hodges an ‘A-grade tool’. I haven’t been studying journalism that long but I’m pretty sure you can’t write that in your major paper.

If we’re calling people names and tags what about Brett White?? The bloke has a reputation as a thug and an animal...don’t believe me? Ask Ben Ross (Rd 2, 2008 Storm v Sharks). There’s also been talk of what would mummy and little Johnny think about the Maroons last night?

Well, too often we pander to mummy and Little Johnny. Last night was what built Origin football...passion and playing for your mates. As Queenslanders we expect nothing less. Bring on 2010 and FIVE IN A ROW!!

*******
And another thing...what the heck is with Channel Nine not showing tomorrow night’s Double Header live?? I hope this changes between now and then but my word Channel Nine it’s poor form. The games are sold out so there is no way to see them live unless you have a ticket...it’s bullshit. I hope ACA is a real ratings winner and they fork out a cracker of a Two and a half Men episode. I will be tuning in to ABC radio.

Tips this week: Broncos, Titans, Panthers, Manly, Roosters, Tigers, Storm
Last week: 3/5 (Total: 76/125)
Winning percentage: 61%

As always you can reach me personally at andrew.keyte@gmail.com or comment below. Hit me up on Facebook too at any time.

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Blues, Poo's and Lyon

Good afternoon or evening or whenever you may be reading this; hope you are well. With the Ashes starting last night and continuing over the weekend it’s been a nice little distraction from the NRL while we build up to the Origin dead-rubber game in Brisbane. Queensland of course have won the series and will play for a whitewash while the Blues need to find some form of respect, where nothing short of a win will do. Today I’m going to look at Origin from a couple of different angles as I discuss the big issues from this week.

Finally, NSW pick the right team
Without a doubt, in my opinion, this is more like the team the Blues needed for Game I if they were to challenge Queensland. Unfortunately though in the grand scheme of things that all means nothing...the series is over and the Blues could win 30-0 but they can’t take the trophy from the Maroons. They have the right mix in this side with an experienced and form halfback in Kimmorley, exiting try-scorers in Jennings, Morris and Hayne plus some smart, tough and aggressive forwards in Perry, White, Poore and Waterhouse. Not to mention a man made for Origin, hooker Mick Ennis.

This is more like the team I would have had for Game I, except minus Barrett for a Campese or Wallace, and more like the team that can beat Queensland. I actually think the Blues are favourites for this match. They need the win more than Queensland and this, as I keep repeating, is an Origin team that can win.

Myles wiped out of Origin III
Everyone knows the story now surely about Nate Myles bender Sunday night on the Central Coast. For those that don’t, he basically had a big night, got locked out of his room, took a dump in a hotel corridor and was found in a fire escape. Bottom line: six week suspension and out of Origin III. But there’s a bigger issue here...WHAT THE HECK IS WRONG AT THE ROOSTERS? I honestly don’t have an answer to that.

Ten years ago, less probably, the Roosters were one of the cleanest, trouble-free clubs that rarely had an off-field incident worth talking about. Now they’ve had three in three weeks, including one involving the damn COACH, and they’re $50,000 poorer, losing sponsors and losing all credibility. They need to ask some serious questions at that club to find the problems and deliver some answers. I’m not a Roosters fan but at the moment they are an embarrassment to the game.

Back onto Myles, his suspension adds to the list of Maroon ‘unavailables’ for Origin III. Of course big Petero Civoniceva headlines the list along with Folau and Hannant. They are all big losses but it does provide an opportunity for some fringe guys to come in, play at Suncorp in front of a packed house, in a low-pressure (by Origin standards) contest. Matt Scott, Neville Costigan and Dave Shillington are all good selections and deserve their opportunities. Re-calling a fully fit Hodges was a no-bainer but Willie Tonga may be found out on the wing marking Jarryd Hayne. We’ll find out soon enough I guess.

Jamie Lyon
The guy that didn’t want to play rep footy is in the news again today for the wrong reasons. He was ruled out of Origin III on Tuesday morning with an ankle injury but now looks likely to be fit to play for Manly on Sunday, three days BEFORE the Blues play. I have to be clear here in saying it was the Blues doctor who ruled Lyon out when he did...Jamie from what I have read had no real say in the decision. If it was any other player I would be against them playing this weekend but in Lyon’s situation I am like him, I just don’t care. Lyon made it clear early this year he didn’t really care about playing rep footy or not...he requested to be exempt and when that was denied, basically said he would play if picked.

And that’s where the Blues miss the boat on the passion surrounding Origin football. No Queensland would EVER say don’t pick me for Origin (unless obviously they had a good career and retired from rep footy). And I could also guarantee that if a player did say they weren’t interested, selectors wouldn’t give it another thought and would find someone who was.

In this case I don’t really blame Lyon, the decision was made by the doctors and management. Maybe it’s for the NRL to make a rule preventing this kind of thing...I don’t know. In my opinion Lyon will play for Manly this weekend but won’t play for the Blues again, whether he’s available or not.

Tips this week: Souths, Newcastle, Warriors, Manly, Titans
Last week: 6/8 (Total: 73/120)
Winning percentage: 61%

I’m off to Origin III next week and can’t wait! Would love to see the Maroon-wash but I have a feeling Noddy and co. might conjure up a Blues win by about 10 points. Anyway, as a Queenslander I won’t really care. I’m going to celebrate a fourth straight series win! Hit me up at andrew.keyte@gmail.com or comment below if you have anything to share.

Go the Maroons,
Keyto

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Club Cultures

Well another week in the NRL and more negative headlines. Unfortunately the euphoria (at least where I live) of last weeks’ Origin victory is long gone and been replaced by more off-field, alcohol related incidents. This is not going to be a game-bashing column, but I’m rather going to look at the club culture throughout the game and why it plays such a big role in preventing these incidents.

Every single rugby league club, at any level, has some sort of culture that filters to all aspects of the organisation from the CEO to the folks cheering on the sideline. In the NRL, the clubs with the best culture tend to be the clubs we don’t see any negative headlines about. Purely as a fan looking in, I think the clubs with the best culture at the moment are the Bulldogs way out in front, followed by the Gold Coast Titans and Newcastle. Two of those clubs have had to completely re-build their culture in the last few years while the Titans have set about a foundation in which to build their organisation.

Phil Gould often says it takes two years to build a culture but just 12 months to destroy it.

As a Brisbane Broncos fan, I’m alert but not alarmed about where the club is heading. Over the past twelve months there has been an increase in incidents not normally associated with the club. We all know about that September night last year where the 2008 Premiership virtually was lost in the toilet of a Brisbane nightclub. In 2009 there have been a few Broncos involved in some relatively minor off-field incidents...but incidents nonetheless not normally associated with the club. The Broncos are working hard to ensure the culture established over 20 years isn’t nose-diving (don’t believe me, ask Joel Clinton).

The alarming thing is that most of the off-field indiscretions at the Broncos over the past few years have occurred in the time since Wayne Bennett announced he was leaving the club. Would they have happened under his leadership? Hard to say, but we do know off-field problems were rare or very swiftly and dealt with harshly (see: Seymour, B. and Costigan, N.). We also know that there hasn’t been a negative off-field peep out of the Dragons this season.

The other thing I, and other Broncos fans, have noticed this season is a different attitude on the field. It’s obvious the players are trying very hard and they’ve had a reasonable season, but there seems to be a touch of laziness creeping in. The three 40-point hidings dished out last month have over-shadowed the start of the year where the Broncos were winning, but not after most teams were able to run over them during the second half.

What happens on the field is a reflection of what happens off the field and more specifically, the culture at a rugby league club.

You just have to take a look at the Roosters this season. On the field they’ve been ordinary, even accused of not trying hard enough at certain times. They have had at least four well publicised off-field incidents including two in the past three weeks. As a rugby league fan looking in, it’s not hard to think there are major problems within that club.

As I mentioned before, it is possible to turn a team around in a relatively quick period of time. I couldn’t be happier for the Bulldogs, a rabble last year but now they are the best rugby league club in the competition. They have all bases covered and have become a credit to themselves again.

It wasn’t easy; they had to sweep through the place. The Bulldogs had to lose a long serving, long suffering yet successful coach. They got rid of certain types of individuals and have had to start from scratch to win back sponsors and stakeholders. But the Bulldogs had some great individuals playing football for them still: Andrew Ryan, Luke Patten and Hazem El Masri.

These three guys are ten-plus year veterans all with unblemished off-field records. They are the sort of player you could build a club around; and the Bulldogs have. Bring in guys like Brett Kimmorley and Michael Ennis plus upstanding young gentlemen in Josh Morris and Ben Hannant...you have a nucleus to build your club around.

Newcastle are much the same. Brian Smith copped a lot of flack when he tore through the club and got rid of just about everyone. Like the Bulldogs, he kept guys you could build a club around: Kurt Gidley and Steve Simpson. He also brought in guys who were solid on the field and clean off the field. It’s taken longer than the Bulldogs, they’re a younger side and the club was really shaken up by the change, but the Knights are on the verge of major success.

And now we have stories like this: a great piece on Junior Sau from the Newcastle club. Hopefully you have heard about it already; if not go have a read. These are the sort of good things 95% of NRL players will do.

A strong culture is very important to a rugby league club. You will not win a Premiership if your club is a mess off the field. Everyone needs to be working to that one goal, and that goal can only be achieved by a strong club culture. And this comes from the CEO down to those cheering on the sidelines.

Most NRL clubs are going ok I think, or at least looking to head in a better direction. No doubt some need to look where they are and perhaps make some changes. But that can be difficult with so many personalities involved. However as a fan, I prefer to cheer on the good guys then read about the guys in trouble off the field.

Tips this week: Brisbane, Dragons, Tigers, Storm, Cowboys, Titans, Panthers, Manly
Last week: 5/7 (Total: 67/112)
Winning percentage: 60%

Any feedback can be sent directly to andrew.keyte@gmail.com or use the buttons located below.

Enjoy the footy,
Keyto

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Where to for the Blues?

How good was that Maroon victory last night!! Four in a row is a fantastic effort, especially last night where the victory was based on traditional Origin values of grit, determination, passion and hunger rather than sheer skill and attacking flair. This current Queensland team is one of the best sporting teams this country has produced; joining the likes of the former great St George teams and the past Australian cricket teams etc. But where to now for New South Wales...they need something desperately to salvage their own Origin integrity.

The Blues have been out-Origined in all aspects of this series...attack, defence, coaching, passion, hunger...all aspects of this series. Queensland’s win last night came with guys playing with busted knees, sore ribs...nearly half the team was struck down with a virus less than 24 hours earlier. Dallas Johnson was on a drip all day, Nate Myles wanted to come off the field because he had to go to the bathroom. Their star centre Greg Inglis was taken out by an illegal play...yet the Maroons, even though it wasn’t sudden-death football, tackled their hearts out to win a game for Queensland. They wanted it more and New South Wales need to find out why.

At the end of the day the Blues can say they got close, their second half was good etc...but a loss is a loss and they’ve now lost four series in a row. Now they have to travel up to Brisbane next month to prevent a clean sweep. So what do they do now? Stick with this squad, some of which have played the last few years and be beaten, some of which were out of position and some of which simply outplayed? I think the Blues need to take a serious look at themselves and pick a team for next year. In the end, they’ve lost the series and it won’t matter if it’s 2-1 or 3-0. They need to blood a team for next year and for god’s sake, STICK WITH IT!!

There are quite a few changes I would make for Game Three with a view to the 2010 series:

Michael Ennis
This guy has to come into the side at hooker. Robbie Farah has proven himself to be a very good player at club level but his little trick shots are not what Origin is about. He has been outplayed and out-Origined by Cameron Smith in this series. I’m certain he was playing injured last night too, there’s no way a rib cartilage injury like he got ten days ago would have healed in time. My suspicion is he didn’t want to give up his spot, and fair enough, but if you go into an Origin game at less than 100% chances are you will be found out. Farah’s missed tackle on Folau and his shocking pass that gifted Lockyer a try, to me, was consistent with such a rib injury.

I’m not saying Farah was to blame for the two losses but he hasn’t had the impact or performances they need from their hooker. Smith has been all over him and taught Farah an Origin lesson. It’s time for Farah to go back, learn a few more things, and come back a better player. For now Michael Ennis needs a shot. I said earlier this year Ennis has Origin written all over him and could really take it to the Maroons. It’s time to give him a go.

The Morris Twins
Josh got a game last night but was utterly wasted. He is a right centre but was picked to spend an hour on the bench and twenty minutes marooned (pun intended) on the left wing. His twin brother Brett is one of the hottest try scorers (left winger) in the game this season and that’s something the Blues need. For mine it should be Josh at right centre and Brett at left wing.

Jamie Soward
I think it’s fair to say that apart from Thurston, Jamie Soward has probably been the form five-eighth or halfback in the competition this season. His coach Wayne Bennett said a while ago that Soward is not ready for Origin...and he probably isn’t. But come May 2010 Soward might well be ready for Origin. I can’t see the harm in blooding him now, alongside Trent Barrett, in a low-pressure game. Whatever experience he has in Brisbane Soward can take back to his club, work with Bennett, and become a better player for this season and beyond.

I feel sorry for Peter Wallace. He isn’t in great form this season but for both the Broncos and definitely the Blues he’s been playing behind a badly beaten forward pack. Wallace has probably had his shot for now, it’s time to go back to club football and become a better halfback. His short-term Origin career is probably over, but I doubt he’s played his last ever Origin game.

The Forwards
The Blues have really missed Ben Cross this year. Their forwards are a bit too pretty I think. You look at a guy like Nate Myles...he is a fair club player, nothing really special but he stands tall in that Queensland jumper. Myles is an Origin player...the Blues don’t really have one in their forwards. Luke O’Donnell has probably been their best and Anthony Watmough made an impact from the bench, but there’s not much else apart from that.

I think Luke Douglas from Cronulla has got Origin written all over him. He has played something like 80 consecutive games since his debut and that’s the sort of toughness you need in Origin. Also someone like Alan Tongue would bring some passion and grit back to the Blues, he could become their Dallas Johnson. I’m also surprised neither Josh Perry or Brett White even got a mention...they are big guys, with a bit of mongrel attitude, and I think you need that in a team. The current Blues pack has been dominated by a couple of old blokes, Price & Petero, and a group of passionate Queenslanders.

The Coach
For whatever reasons Craig Bellamy hasn’t been able to bring his club success to the representative table. The Blues need to look at what Queensland has done and pick someone with no club ties who can dedicate more time and resources to winning a series.

Phil Gould is the leading candidate for that...he is a guy that could stop this Maroon juggernaut but I’m not sure he wants the job. Failing that I would look towards a Blues legend like Andrew Johns or Laurie Daley...they need someone from outside the club scene. At this level you don’t need a technical coach, you need a man-manager to bring passion and pride to the jersey.

For whatever it’s worth, this is my New South Wales team for Game III in Brisbane on July 15th:
(1-17) Gidley, Hayne, J.Morris, Jennings, B.Morris, Soward, Barrett, Perry, Ennis, Weyman, O’Donnell, Creagh, Tongue. Bench: Hornby, Watmough, White, Douglas

Most of those guys have been picked in their regular club positions and the forwards have a bit more size and aggression about them. I don’t know what the selectors will do, as a Queenslander I don’t really care to be honest. But I would like to see a competitive series next year because 2009 has been one of the great Origin miss-matches.

Tips this week: Dragons, Bulldogs, Titans, Roosters, Melbourne, Brisbane, Newcastle
Last week: 3/5 (Total: 62/105)
Winning percentage: 59%

I’ll catch you later, any comments can be left below or email me directly at andrew.keyte@gmail.com.

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Why the Blues need Barrett

Hello everyone and thanks for coming back. While we are just six days from Origin II and I would normally do a preview I have decided to go with something more regular. There are a few reasons: I find Origin build ups and subsequent previews boring and I don’t think New South Wales can win (everything being equal). That’s not to say they won’t win, but if Queensland turn up with the right attitude I can’t see them being beaten.

Don’t get me wrong, New South Wales have picked a fairly strong side and do have a definite home field advantage in terms of conditions (not crowd). 50,000 Blues fans (which there should be in an 80,000 seat venue) at ANZ Stadium won’t make the same noise or create the same passionate feeling as 50,000 Maroon fans at Suncorp Stadium.

To win New South Wales need a few things to go their way. Firstly, they will need Queensland to be slightly off their game. Whether this is brought about by new tactics, complacency or a drop in attitude it doesn’t matter...the Blues need Queensland to be at most playing at 90% of their ability. Also, New South Wales will need some luck from maybe a good bounce or a few fifty-fifty calls and they probably need a slow track in slippery conditions. That will limit the Queensland backline and allow the Blues forwards to better manoeuvre through the larger, less mobile Queensland pack.

But most importantly, New South Wales need to play better. Much better. And they need to score tries.

And this is where Trent Barrett can help them. After the last game, which for those Blues supporters let me remind you the score read Queensland 28 New South Wales 18, most critics agreed the Blues attack left plenty to be desired. They scored three tries but none were constructive...they all had a degree of luck (fluke) in them from a lucky bounce or ricochet or something.

Anyone that would listen to me knows I thought they had too many guns firing the bullets. They had Gidley, Campese, Wallace and Farah trying to call shots. That’s what they do very well for their individual clubs but I thought four of this type of player in one team was too many. I compared it to Queensland who have Thurston as the main man, the classy Lockyer as his back up and hooker Smith as the alternative. That structure works so much better in my opinion.

Last week I also told anyone who would listen that I thought Luke Lewis was the answer to this problem for the Blues. I believed he should be a link man at five-eighth with the halfback calling the shots, Farah the back up and Gidley the alternative. However, the more I thought about it the more sense it makes to go with someone like Trent Barrett and I began to change my way of thinking.

With such a young team it was blatantly obvious the Blues lacked direction and guidance, particularly in attack. For that reason, I began thinking they needed to pick either Barrett or Brett Kimmorley to guide these other guys around. The creative quartet had about 4 or 5 games experience between them. From memory Barrett and Kimmorley have played 8 or 9 games each.

What’s more, I think both of these guys are just about in career best form. Barrett has come back from England just a good a player as he left...and I think he is a bit ‘tougher’. By that I mean he seems to be taking the line on and defending better. He is doing a lot of the gritty work at the struggling Sharks and is visibly trying to carry that side every week.

Kimmorley is in career best form. Just take a look at what the guy is doing for the blokes playing around him. Kimmorley last year single-handedly contributed to the re-emergence of Brett Seymour as a first grade halfback while this year Kimmorley is assisting the evolution and arrival of Ben Roberts as the Bulldogs five-eighth. Kimmorley has evolved as a player and is playing the experienced role to perfection. We’ve seen it before...Brad Fittler with Brett Finch, Darren Lockyer to a degree with Peter Wallace, Cliff Lyons with Geoff Toovey (for anyone who can remember 15 years ago!!). Personally I think Kimmorley with Terry Campese at Origin level was probably the way to go, but Barrett with Wallace should do the job for them.

Some have said picking Barrett or Kimmorley at the expense of someone new next week would be a step backwards. I disagree...to go forwards sometimes you have to take a step or two backwards. I think having one of those old heads guiding people like Wallace, Campese, Farah and Gidley could be more beneficial than throwing the young guys in deep like they did for Game I. Look at Queensland...when Thurston was a rookie at this level he had an experienced Lockyer around guiding him not to mention forwards like Webcke, Civoniceva, Thorn and Carroll around too.

The Blues don’t have that experience to help their younger guys. The most experienced players were guys like Kite, who appears too nice to be an Origin front rower, and Luke Bailey who is a good club player but has never dominated at rep level. For mine, as an outsider looking in, it makes sense to have a Barrett or Kimmorley there.

That’s just my opinion and for the record I would have gone with Campese and Kimmorley but as a Queenslander what they do is not really any of my business. While I’m putting things on record, I think Queensland will win in Sydney next week. The Blues need a lot of things going their way and I can’t quite see it happening...Maroons by 4 points.

Tips this week: Bulldogs, Cowboys, Storm, Canberra, Brisbane
Last week: 6/8 (Total: 59/100)
Winning percentage: 59%

Any comments, theories or hate mail can be sent to my email: andrew.keyte@gmail.com or you can comment below.

Enjoy the Origin next week,
Keyto

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Mid-year Review

Well we are past the halfway mark in the regular competition in terms of length anyway. There is some imbalance with, for example, the Bulldogs having had two byes and the Dragons none but I think we have seen enough of all teams to give a brief assessment of where their season is heading. At least, I’ve seen enough to give my judgments!

I will list the teams in their current table position with team position and my pre-season prediction in brackets. I will then give a brief comment on where I think their season is heading.

DRAGONS (current: 1st; pre-season prediction: Top Two)
For anyone that knows Wayne Bennett and what he can do as a coach there aren’t many surprises with how they’re going. They have built up a toughness and play as a football team. The halves have come good and everyone is playing a role. Hard to see them missing a home final.

Finish: Top four, strong chance top two

BULLDOGS (current: 2nd; pre-season prediction: Fringe of the eight)
This team has gelled together much quicker and better than most judges expected. Despite a host of new players the team plays like your typical Bulldog team: tough, strong and they know how to win. Kimmorley has been great for them and they have some talented outside backs. Strong force this year.

Finish: Top four, strong chance top two

TITANS (current: 3rd; pre-season prediction: I want to say top eight, but can’t)
Nothing has changed from pre-season prediction because a fully fit Scott Prince remains the key to this football side. Some question marks over the forwards but they generally hold their own against the top sides. Only injuries will prevent a maiden finals appearance.

Finish: Top four, if Prince is fit. Might scrape top eight if he gets a long-term injury

BRONCOS (current 4th; pre-season prediction: top eight, just)
The Broncos are winning more games then they’re losing but apart from the first month aren’t playing great football. Still, it’s better to be winning than losing and the team would know they can only improve. They must try and battle through the rep period before a final push in the last 6-8 weeks.

Finish: Top eight

STORM (current 5th; pre-season prediction: close to the top, but not the force they once were)
I think that prediction has more or less come true for the Storm. They are still a very good football team that’s hard to beat, but the difference is most teams now realistically think they have a real shot. Still, the form last weekend against Brisbane sounded an ominous warning we’ve seen before.

Finish: Definite top eight, probably top four and possibly top two

COWBOYS (current 6th; pre-season prediction: return to the eight)
After a slow start the Cowboys have clicked together and are just about playing their best football since the 2005 Grand Final run. Thurston is in career best form and the rest of the team are doing their jobs around him. Thurston is the key man and if he stays fit they will play finals football.

Finish: Top four not out of the question

PANTHERS (current 7th; pre-season prediction: too young for the top eight)
Well I take that prediction back: from what I’ve seen the Panthers have that desired balance of youth and experience. They have a good halfback now in Walsh who plays off strong forwards. Luke Lewis is the heart of that team, along with Civoniceva, their absence at times may hurt. And, with key injuries to other teams or a bit of momentum here...you just never know.

Finish: Top eight

KNIGHTS (current 8th; pre-season prediction: Come on Knights, top eight!!)
I like Newcastle this year and like Penrith they have a good mix in their side. They have a great record at home and have beaten pretty much all the top sides this year. A bit of momentum could take the Knights a long way and what a change 18 months would have made.

Finish: Top eight

RABBITOHS (current 9th; pre-season prediction: Time to deliver)
Look, Souths are an annoying team to watch because for every great win they can deliver a real shit of a performance. Their defence probably isn’t good enough to trouble the top teams.

Finish: Probably miss the eight, but won’t challenge for last

MANLY (current 10th; pre-season prediction: Grand Final bound)
That prediction was way off but I did say pre-season, “it seems the only team that could hurt Manly is the Sea Eagles themselves”...and they have. Too much work to do in the back end, they may squeeze into the eight but even that will be a struggle.

Finish: Only team outside the eight that could make it, but will probably just miss out

RAIDERS (current 11th; pre-season prediction: top eight, maybe)
Last year they made their run from a similar position at about this time. They could very well do it again but there’s no ‘X-Factor’ here. Campese was it last year, but he isn’t anonymous anymore.

Finish: Around 10th, won’t make the eight

WARRIORS (current 12th, pre-season prediction: building momentum)
The Warriors have been extremely disappointing, borderline disgraceful, at times this year. I can’t see them fighting back, too many bad games for them so far to claw their way back.

Finish: Might win more then they lose, but won’t make the eight

EELS (current 13th, pre-season prediction: Good Luck)
Yep, losing Brett Finch was it for their season. They don’t have a squad to consistently win and while they might jag a few, won’t be nearly enough.

Finish: Near the bottom

TIGERS (current 14th; pre-season prediction: There’ll be moments, but not enough)
The Tigers are playing better football then their position suggests but crucially they aren’t winning. It’s as simple as that and they’ve left a heck of a lot to do in the second half of the year.

Finish: Closer to ninth than last, but no finals football again

SHARKS (current 15th, pre-season prediction: Top Four)
Off-field dramas and a game plan that worked last year but not good enough this year is the story of their season. At least the team is trying their guts out and hopefully they’ll be regularly winning.

Finish: They’re trying hard, won’t make the eight but should avoid the spoon

ROOSTERS (current 16th; pre-season prediction: Finals bound, but I’m not confident)
This team has been in trouble since the opening whistle and there haven’t been many signs of change. Red-hot favourites for the wooden spoon because, simply, every week their opposition is trying harder and playing better.

Finish: Last, and I’m much more confident this time

So they’re my thoughts on the season to date and really I can’t see much changing. Having said that, every year we see one or two teams charge up the ladder and one or two fall away. Those in danger are probably the Broncos and either the Panthers or Knights while Manly and maybe Canberra are the only real threats I can see rising.

Anyway, here’s my predicted ladder after 26 rounds from first to last:
Dragons, Storm, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Titans, Panthers, Broncos, Knights...Sea Eagles, Raiders, Tigers, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Warriors, Eels, Roosters

Tips this week: Warriors, Broncos, Titans, Manly, Melbourne, Raiders, Dragons, Tigers
Last week: 3/7 (Total: 53/92)
Winning percentage: 58%

I would love to hear your thoughts on how the season is panning out for your team…please comment below or you can reach me directly at andrew.keyte@gmail.com.

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, June 4, 2009

I want WENDELL!!

What a great win by Queensland last night!! Hello everyone and thanks for stopping by. As most of you know I’m a born and bred Queenslander so I was pretty happy with the result last night. I’m going to spend today looking at three things: the game last night, the state of NSW and one big inclusion I want for Game II.

Origin I
I think the 28-18 score line flattered New South Wales in a big way. ‘Gus’ Gould was spot on when he said the Blues were ‘out-Origined’ last night. The Blues never really manufactured a try last night; their three came off a freakish play from Jarryd Hayne and two lucky bounces off kick deflections. Even when the margin was six points near the end I thought the Maroons were still in control and had another gear in them.

Queensland did what they had to do to win the game. They were far from brilliant but used all their experience to seal the game. This squad knows how to win Origins and it showed last night. It was a miss-match last night, especially early, and that probably hurt the game. Even though I am a Queenslander even I was slightly deflated at the early 18-2 scoreboard. I want the Maroons to win but I also enjoy tough, hard Origin battles.

I don’t know what the Blues can do for Sydney. I guess they either keep the same squad under the theory that they can only play better. But the problem is at no stage did the Blues look the better team or one capable of outplaying the Maroons for 80 minutes.

NSW Team
I think the Blues picked the wrong team. I know Craig Wing shined when he finally got on in the last 20 minutes but it came at the expense of Robbie Farah. For mine Farah is the most dangerous player in that team plus he plays 80 minutes on his head...they don’t need a reserve hooker, especially when Gidley is capable of playing there in an emergency.

Also, having Gidley, Campese, Wallace and Farah in the same team is one cook too many. By that I mean they are all fairly dominant creative players and having too many of those players in one team hurts. If you look at the Queensland side, Thurston is the main attacking conductor with Darren Lockyer chiming in when he feels the need and Cameron Smith playing an alternative role. The Blues have four guys all comfortable and preferring a Thurston role and it didn’t work last night.

For mine I would play Luke Lewis at five-eighth. He wouldn’t need to do much of the attacking work and can just focus on running hard and playing a ‘link’ role to the backs. They need something more in attack but another attacking, creator is not the answer. Perhaps they need changes in the forwards too but I’m not sure whom they can call on.

WENDELL for Game II
Justin Hodges has a knee injury and will at least miss Origin II on June 24. I am deadly serious when I say Wendell Sailor is the man I would pick to be his replacement. I would play Wendell on the wing alongside Folau as the new centre. People might say Wendell is too old and too slow to play Origin anymore but Sailor is an Origin-player. He loves the big stage and I guarantee if chosen he will lift (as if that was more possible!) and be one of the best on ground.

Can you imagine eye-balling Folau and Sailor alongside each other charging right at you? It would be formidable and I honestly think Wendell has got to be seriously considered. He would be in my team that’s for sure.

Tips this week: Broncos, Tigers, Manly, Cowboys, Warriors, Newcastle, Titans
Last week: 3/5 (Total: 50/89)
Winning percentage: 56%

That’s all from me, any thoughts or comments please hit me up at andrew.keyte@gmail.com or comment below.

Cheers,
Keyto

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Origin I Preview

Hello everyone and welcome to the best time of the rugby league year…State of Origin time!! Walking around Brisbane-town this week already you can smell it in the air. The shops are decked out in maroon, we’ve got people donning the jerseys and everyone who cares is chatting away about it. Queensland of course are shooting for a record fourth straight series win while the Blues have had one of the biggest clean outs in their history. So who is going to win Game I and how are they going to do it…?

History
The big stat is Queensland looking to be the first side in the almost 30 year history of State of Origin to go four in a row. The Blues simply have to find a way to prevent that from happening. New South Wales had eight debutants, now seven with Glenn Stewart suspended last night, named for Game I. The last time they did that, 2002, the Blues came away with a comprehensive 32-4 win at home. However we are on neutral turf next week.

The Venue
Ethiad Stadium…formerly known as Telstra Dome which was formerly known as Colonial Stadium…it’s that ground with the roof in Melbourne, we all know the one? Anyway that’s the venue for the series opener, the first time Game I has occurred outside Sydney or Brisbane. It is a Queensland home game and I think they will have whatever home town advantage there is to be had. The Maroons have four current Storm players plus two guys that were part of the three-year Grand Final run.

I don’t think conditions will be a problem. I’m pretty sure the roof will be closed for this match but I can’t find any confirmation of that. Even if it’s open I don’t think conditions will be quite as dewy as Sydney but not as dry/humid as Brisbane…so neutral in other words! That should make for some good attacking football which probably favours Queensland, but not by much.

The Teams
Phil Gould said on Triple M Monday Night Footy this week that Queensland knew their side at Christmas time. That call was spot on, the only change to last year barring a dramatic form difference or injury was going to be Michael Crocker. But once his England deal fell through and he got through two games with Souths he was an automatic selection. There may be one or two positional changes, possibly Slater to the bench and Hunt to start at fullback, but those 17 guys were always safe bets and they’ve been doing the job for three years.

‘Gus’ Gould also went on to say that no one could argue anyone in the NSW team didn’t deserve to be there on form. Again, that’s a pretty accurate argument to make. They have gone for all out attack which is evidenced by the selection of Michael Jennings over Matt Cooper at centre. They’ve named a strong side, albeit a young one, but certainly a squad capable of winning Origin games.

The Key Men
Queensland are full of the usual suspects with Lockyer, Thurston, Smith plus Inglis, Folau and Slater. I think Johnathan Thurston is the main man and he’s back to his best form. The Test Match seemed to spark him into gear and he is playing great football again. To negate him the Blues need to beat Queensland in the forwards and work on shutting down Cameron Smith.

The Blues have a few key players and their fate will rest on the Gidley-Campese-Wallace-Farah combination. I don’t think there is going to be a dominant player in that quartet like a Thurston so the key is probably keeping a lid on Farah. I think though NSW can get some real impact and points from the two Panthers; Jennings and Luke Lewis. But that too will rely a bit on Farah at dummy half.

How Queensland Can Win
Roll forward and use Thurston and Lockyer to deliver to Folau, Inglis and co. That’s been the game plan for three years and I can’t see it changing now. The Maroons have a strong, mobile forward pack that will try and run over the top of the Blues. It sounds simple, but the old rugby league adage of forwards win matches and backs determine the margin has been no truer than for this Origin side. Three tries will probably be enough to win because Queensland looks the better defensive side.

How New South Wales Can Win
Firstly, they must match and preferably beat Queensland in the forwards. After that, they need Farah creating opportunities from dummy half and a very good kicking game from the halves. NSW have try scorers in the backline but they need to be seeing quality ball on a regular basis. Jennings screams ‘danger’ for any defender and will have chances with Hodges likely to rush up and try and play in his face. The Blues will probably need four tries to win and should aim for around 26 points.

Who Will Win
Having a young side means the Blues will compete and be up in the Queensland faces for at least 60 minutes. If they lead by 4-6 points in the last twenty minutes NSW are a real show. I just worry though whether their forwards can match it with QLD. They will certainly be in with a good shot but I have to stick with Queensland picking up the win. Part of its loyalty, and part bias, but you have to think Queensland have a team that knows how to win big games. This will certainly be a heck of a match and if the Maroons don’t turn up ready to play they will get run down by an exciting NSW side.

First Try
I really like Michael Jennings as an attacking weapon for this one. I also like Luke Lewis but he will be starting on the bench, still we may not have a try for the first 20 minutes or so. There’ll be value on a debutant too. For Queensland, take your pick at the back but Folau will be short odds. Also look for Darius Boyd out on the wing too and possibly Thurston.

Final Thoughts
I can’t wait for this one, you can smell it in the air and feel the vibe all the way from Melbourne!! I know we will see a competitive series and there is very little between the two sides. Can’t wait for it!

Teams:

QUEENSLAND
Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm), Darius Boyd (St George Illawarra), Greg Inglis (Melbourne Storm), Justin Hodges (Brisbane Broncos), Israel Folau (Brisbane Broncos); Darren Lockyer (captain, Brisbane Broncos), Johnathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys); Steve Price (Warriors), Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm), Petero Civoniceva (Penrith), Ashley Harrison (Gold Coast), Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos), Dallas Johnson (Melbourne Storm).
Interchange: Karmichael Hunt (Brisbane Broncos), Ben Hannant (Bulldogs), Nate Myles (Sydney Roosters), Michael Crocker (South Sydney)

NEW SOUTH WALES
Kurt Gidley (captain, Newcasle Knights), Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta Eels), Jamie Lyon (Manly Sea Eagles), Michael Jennings (Penrith Panthers), James McManus (Newcastle Knights), Terry Campese (Canberra Raiders), Peter Wallace (Brisbane Broncos), Brent Kite (Manly Sea Eagles), Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers), Luke Bailey (Gold Coast Titans), Ben Creagh (St George Illawarra), Luke O'Donnell (North Queensland Cowboys), Paul Gallen (Cronulla Sharks). Interchange: Craig Wing (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Justin Poore (St George Illawarra), Luke Lewis (Penrith Panthers), Michael Weyman (St George Illawarra)

Referees: Tony Archer and Shayne Hayne
Broadcast: Channel Nine 7:30pm (QLD, NSW), ABC Local Radio


Tips this week: Dragons, Sharks, Warriors, Bulldogs, Souths
Last week: 6/8 (Total: 47/84)
Winning percentage: 56%

Thanks for reading, any comments to andrew.keyte@gmail.com or just comment below. Enjoy the Origin!!

Cheers,
Keyto