Epic GF encounter awaits

After seven months of intense competition the NRL Grand Final will see the minor premiers tackle the rags-to-riches fairy tailers in what should be a memorable match.

St George-Illawarra have been the best team for two years and have dominated the 2010 season since the first ball was kicked.

On the other side of the field stand the Roosters, a club in turmoil and holding the wooden spoon this time last year.

An intriguing battle awaits and now there only one question remains – who is going to win?

How the Dragons can win

If the Dragons play the way they have all season, it will keep them in the game. However this is a Grand Final and so often teams will need to find something extra to get over the line. That something extra has to be in attack.

Mark Gasnier may well hold the keys to success on Sunday. If he can get some early ball we may just see the Gasnier of old. The forwards will have to aim up and the Dragons will need Nathan Fien at his attacking best. If Jamie Soward holds his nerve, he’s good enough to steer the side to that elusive premiership.

How the Roosters can win

The Roosters need to find a way to get two tries in front – the earlier the better. If the game turns into an arm wrestle the Dragons will have the advantage. Not that the Roosters can’t hold their own as we saw three weeks ago against the Tigers. We’ve seen some good defence from the Chooks in the Finals and that must be on song this Sunday.

The Roosters have an x-factor to them – they can beat anyone and be beaten by anyone. They also have points in them which will definitely worry the Dragons. The forwards will try and bully their way to an advantage and if that happens then Pearce and Carney can send the likes of SKD away for plenty of points. They’ll need at least four tries which won’t be easy.

The Coaches

Now, this is a battle within a battle. Wayne Bennett and Brian Smith – two guys who don’t really know each other yet have a storied rivalry dating back nearly 20 years. It stems from when Bennett’s Broncos beat Smith’s Dragons in consecutive Grand Finals and has grown ever since.

Neither guy is likely to get involved this week but a quick look at their records tells a story. Bennett won six out of six GF’s with Brisbane while Smith is still chasing his first after four losing ARL/NRL and English Super League attempts.

The 2010 history

These two clubs met twice this season with the Dragons winning both. They got home 28-6 in Round 7 on ANZAC Day before finishing 19-12 winners in front of a packed SCG crowd in Round 22.

On both occasions the game broke down into an arm wrestle before the Dragons ran over the top of the Roosters in the second half.

Key Players

I like the Roosters forward pack – there’s a great mix of workers, aggression and solid first graders in there. A guy like Jared Waerea-Hargreaves can be a huge asset, he can also give away penalties, but if he’s on then so are the Roosters.

Shaun Kenny-Dowall in the centres is a huge weapon but he will be up against Matt Cooper while Gasnier must be used more by the Dragons. Across the backline Saints have the edge man-for-man but as a unit there’s more points in the Roosters.

This is really going to come down to a battle between the five-eighths ... Jamie Soward against Todd Carney. They must steer their sides around and make good decisions under pressure. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the winner of this earn the best on ground award.

Finally, never under-estimate Braith Anasta. He has been great all season and especially in the last six weeks. The Roosters skipper could be about to play the game of his life.

It all comes down to this ...

I think this game can be won in the first half, even the first 20 minutes. The Roosters need to at least stick with the Dragons because if they fall behind, Saints will choke them out.

However if the Roosters can get to a 10 or 12 point lead and maintain the rage, I don’t think the Dragons have the attack to score two or three consecutive tries in quick time to win the game.

If the Roosters can play from in front they can win, if they fall behind they can chase the points but I don’t think the opposition will let that happen.

If the Dragons get in front they will stay in front ... if they lead by six or more with 20 minutes to go and keep doing what they’ve done all year they’ll win the game fairly comfortably. But if they fall behind or start to panic (choke?), then it’s Game On!

Prediction

I’m really looking forward to this game ... the defensive kings against the great unknowns. I like the fairy tale aspect of the Roosters and individually I like a few of their players.

I just can’t go past the Dragons though in this one. They are a better team than last season and Bennett knows how to win these games. I’m expecting a reasonably low scoring game, maybe a 15-8 score line to Saints.

On the other hand I could see the Dragons putting on some late tries after a tight 60 minutes to blow the score out.

My official tip is St George-Illawarra by 7 points with the Roosters centre Shaun Kenny-Dowall pipping Brett Morris for the first try.

St George-Illawarra Dragons vs. Roosters, Sunday 4pm QLD, (Channel Nine, live).
Darius Boyd, Brett Morris, Mark Gasnier, Matt Cooper, Jason Nightingale, Jamie Soward, Ben Hornby (c), Neville Costigan, Dean Young, Michael Weyman, Beau Scott, Ben Creagh, Jeremy Smith Interchange: Nathan Fien, Trent Merrin, Matt Prior, Jarrod Saffy, Nick Emmett, Kyle Stanley, Jon Green, Luke Priddis (four to be omitted).

Sydney Roosters vs. Dragons, Sunday 4pm QLD, (Channel Nine, live).
Anthony Minichiello, Joseph Leilua, Kane Linnett, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Sam Perrett, Todd Carney, Mitchell Pearce, Jason Ryles, Jake Friend, Frank-Paul Nuuausala, Nate Myles, Mitchell Aubusson, Braith Anasta (c) Interchange: Martin Kennedy, Jared Waeara-Hargreaves, Daniel Conn, James Aubusson, Nick Kouparitsas, Tom Symonds, Lopini Paea, Phil Graham (four to be omitted).

Referees – Tony Archer and Shane Hayne